Finance
Sterling steady, inflation figures reinforce near-term BoE cut bets
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 18, 2026
2 min readLast updated: February 18, 2026
Quick Summary
Sterling remains steady as UK inflation data boosts BoE rate cut expectations, despite strong domestic price pressures.
Pound Holds Steady as Inflation Data Boosts BoE Rate Cut Expectations
Impact of Inflation on Bank of England Policy
By Samuel Indyk
Current Inflation Trends
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) - The pound was little changed against the dollar as easing British inflation strengthened the case for a near-term rate cut from the Bank of England, even as underlying price pressures remained strong.
Political Factors Influencing Sterling
Annual consumer prices rose 3% last month, slowing from 3.4% in December, according to official figures. Most economists polled by Reuters had expected headline inflation to drop to 3% in January.
Market Reactions to Economic Data
But inflation for services - closely watched as a gauge of domestic price pressures - slowed only marginally to 4.4% from 4.5% in December, above the Reuters poll expectations for a fall to 4.3%.
The pound was flat after the figures at $1.3566. It fell 0.5% on Tuesday after soft labour market figures boosted rate cut expectations.
"Most people sold sterling quite hard yesterday and thought there was going to be some follow-through today with softer inflation numbers but they didn't come in weaker across the board," said ING global head of research Chris Turner.
"Services CPI was a little bit higher than expected so I think sterling has got a little bit of reprieve on that," Turner added.
Investors are assigning a roughly 85% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut from the BoE next month, up slightly from Tuesday. Money market traders are fully pricing in two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year.
EYES ON POLITICS
The uncertain political situation in Britain remains in focus for pound traders.
Last week Prime Minister Keir Starmer brushed off challenges to quit from within his governing centre-left Labour Party over his appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington.
A by-election - a mid-term local election to fill a vacant parliamentary seat - due next week in Greater Manchester, Northwest England, could reignite questions over Starmer's leadership if Labour were to lose the seat, which it won with more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 national election.
"A big Labour loss would put the focus back on Starmer and sterling and gilts come under a bit more pressure," ING's Turner said.
Against the euro, the pound was up 0.2% at 87.2 pence.
(Reporting by Samuel IndykEditing by Gareth Jones)
Key Takeaways
- •UK inflation data strengthens BoE rate cut expectations.
- •Sterling remains steady against the dollar.
- •Political factors continue to influence the pound.
- •Investors see an 85% chance of a BoE rate cut next month.
- •Labour's political challenges may impact sterling.
Frequently Asked Questions about Sterling steady, inflation figures reinforce near-term BoE cut bets
1What is inflation?
Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, eroding purchasing power. Central banks attempt to limit inflation to keep the economy running smoothly.
2What is monetary policy?
Monetary policy refers to the actions taken by a country's central bank to control the money supply and interest rates to achieve macroeconomic goals like controlling inflation and stabilizing currency.
3What are interest rates?
Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money, expressed as a percentage of the total amount borrowed. They are set by central banks and influence economic activity.
4What is the Bank of England?
The Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom, responsible for issuing currency, managing monetary policy, and ensuring financial stability.
5What is the UK economy?
The UK economy encompasses the economic activities and financial systems of the United Kingdom, including production, consumption, and trade of goods and services.
