European Investors Surge into U.S. Treasuries Amid Trade Tensions

European Investment Trends in U.S. Treasuries

By Yoruk Bahceli

Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Investments

LONDON, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Europe accounted for 80% of foreign buying of U.S. Treasuries from April to November last year, according to portfolio data tracked by Citi, suggesting little interest in the region for the 'Sell America' trade during last year's market turmoil.

Pension Funds' Strategy Shift

Since U.S. President Donald Trump announced his sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs in April, Europe has accounted for 240 billion euros ($280.85 billion) of the total 301 billion-euro increase in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries, Citi wrote, citing data through November released by the U.S. Treasury last week. 

Market Reactions and Future Outlook

Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries reached a record high in November, the data showed.

Trump's threat last weekend to raise tariffs on several European countries unless the United States is allowed to buy Greenland prompted analysts, including Deutsche Bank, to question whether European investors might offload U.S. assets.

Similar concerns surfaced last year amid doubts over the safe-haven status of Treasuries and the dollar, as Trump clashed with allies over trade and security and publicly criticised the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. data may however overstate European investor ownership of Treasuries, given that this region is home to large financial centres that market participants from elsewhere use to trade or hold assets. 

NORDIC PENSION FUNDS SELL TREASURIES

This week, Swedish pension fund Alecta announced it had sold most of its U.S. Treasury holdings over the last year, while Denmark's AkademikerPension said it would sell its holdings by the end of this month.

Financial markets have calmed down after Trump ruled out seizing the island by force and dropped his tariff threats on Wednesday. 

"Investor focus may remain on the 'sell America' narrative amid persistent headline risk out of the U.S. In this debate, the context from post-'Liberation Day' flows might be useful," Citi analysts led by senior European rates strategist Aman Bansal wrote in a note to clients. 

One of the key themes investors watched last year was whether concerns around the safety of U.S. assets would boost Europe's appeal for investors. 

Separate data released by the European Central Bank through November this week shows a pick-up in the monthly purchase rate of euro zone debt by foreign investors since April, Citi noted.

"On balance, these data indicate an increased global appetite for euro-area fixed income, but alongside strong continued inflows into U.S. Treasuries and with no signs of European selling since Liberation Day," they added. 

($1 = 0.8546 euros)

(Reporting by Yoruk Bahceli; editing by Amanda Cooper and Louise Heavens)