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Russia has surplus of peas after failing to boost exports to China, analysts say
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on December 11, 2025
Last updated: January 7, 2026
Global Banking and Finance Review
Company
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on December 11, 2025
Last updated: January 7, 2026
By Olga Popova
MOSCOW, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Russian farmers will have a surplus of peas this year after China, the country's main trading partner, bought less than they had hoped, analysts said on Thursday, predicting they may shift to other crops.
After China allowed imports of Russian peas in 2022, many farmers had switched to peas from other crops, including wheat, whose profitability has fallen because of global oversupply that dented prices.
Now the issue is a surplus of peas, which for this year will be around 700,000 metric tons, according to an estimate by Reksoft consultancy.
"Everyone went for peas, expecting high profitability. They got low prices, low profitability. As a result, there's an oversupply and no motivation for next year," Reksoft's head Dmitry Krasnov said.
Reksoft estimated the pea harvest for the season that runs from June last year to July 2025 at 5.3 million metric tons, up 40% from the previous year. Overall exports are expected to fall to 2 million tons, down 15% as compared with the previous year.
Russia exported 1.13 million tons of peas to China in the 2023/24 season, increasing its market share to 49.1% at the expense of Canada and becoming the world's leading pea exporter.
"Hopes that China's market will soak up any supply did not materialise," said Sergei Pluzhnikov, head of Russian Pulses Analytics. He predicted that farmers will turn to oilseeds in pursuit of better margins.
China uses peas to produce pea protein, which, like other plant-based proteins, is used as an ingredient in many dietary food products that are growing in popularity. The country exports most of its pea protein to markets worldwide.
China applied a 100% tariff to Canadian pea imports among retaliatory measures against Canada's levies on China-made electric vehicles and steel and aluminium products.
But Krasnov said it was difficult to replace Canadian peas, which meet the requirements of Chinese producers.
"Canada remains in the market, supplying peas. The issue is quality and stable long-term contracts between Canadian suppliers and China's processing sector," Krasnov said.
(Reporting by Gleb Bryanski; editing by Barbara Lewis)
A surplus occurs when the supply of a product exceeds the demand for it, leading to excess inventory that may affect pricing and profitability.
Exports are goods or services sold by one country to another, contributing to the selling country's economy and trade balance.
A crop shift refers to the change in the type of crops that farmers decide to plant, often in response to market demand or profitability.
Pea protein is a plant-based protein derived from peas, commonly used in dietary products and known for its nutritional benefits.
Market share is the portion of a market controlled by a particular company or product, often expressed as a percentage of total sales in that market.
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