Trump's Iran War Decisions Strain US Alliances and NATO Partnerships
Impact of Trump's Actions on US Alliances and Global Partnerships
By Matt Spetalnick and Andrea Shalal
US Troop Withdrawals and Global Reactions
WASHINGTON, May 9 (Reuters) - With his decision to pull some U.S. troops from Germany, his threats to draw down forces elsewhere in Europe and his downplaying of Iran’s recent attacks on an important Gulf partner, President Donald Trump's latest moves foreshadow what could be the war's enduring legacy: the fraying of ties with key allies.
Even as the U.S. and Iran inch toward a potential off-ramp from their 10-week war, Trump’s words and deeds have revived fears among Washington's long-standing friends - from Europe to the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific - that the United States might be unreliable in a future crisis.
In response, some traditional U.S. partners are starting to hedge their bets in ways that may bring long-lasting changes in relations with Washington, while adversaries such as China and Russia are looking to exploit strategic openings.
Long-term Effects on International Relations
It is not yet clear whether Trump's war with Iran will mark a permanent turning point in U.S. relations with the world.
But most analysts believe his erratic conduct since returning to office, essentially upending the rules-based global order, will further erode U.S. alliances, especially with NATO continuing to feel his ire for largely resisting his wartime demands.
“Trump’s recklessness with respect to Iran is resulting in some dramatic shifts,” said Brett Bruen, a former adviser in the Obama administration who now heads the Situation Room strategic consultancy. “U.S. credibility is at stake.”
European Response to US-Iran Conflict
Economic and Security Implications for Europe
Tensions are especially high between Trump and the Europeans since he joined Israel in striking Iran on February 28, claiming without evidence that Tehran was close to developing a nuclear weapon. Iran’s retaliatory closure of the Strait of Hormuz unleashed an unprecedented global energy shock that has made European countries some of the biggest economic losers from a war they never asked for.
Even before that, Trump had rattled allies by imposing sweeping tariffs, pushing to take over Greenland from Denmark and cutting military aid to Ukraine.
US Troop Reductions in Germany and NATO Tensions
The rift widened when Trump announced this week he was withdrawing 5,000 of the 36,400 troops the U.S. has stationed in Germany after Chancellor Friedrich Merz angered him by saying publicly that the Iranians were humiliating the U.S. The Pentagon then scrapped a planned deployment of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Germany.
Trump - who has long questioned whether the U.S. should remain in the NATO alliance it helped create after World War Two - said he was also considering reducing U.S. forces in Italy and Spain, whose leaders have been at odds with him over the war.
Feuding with Allies and Article 5 Concerns
FEUDING WITH ALLIES
The move followed Trump’s accusations that allies have not been doing enough to back the U.S. in the war and his suggestions that this meant Washington might no longer need to honor the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defense clause.
“President Trump has made his disappointment with NATO and other allies clear," White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said, noting that some requests to use military bases in Europe for the Iran war had been denied by host governments.
While insisting that Trump had "restored America’s standing on the world stage and strengthened relationships abroad," she said he "will never allow the United States to be treated unfairly and taken advantage of by so-called ‘allies.’”
Trump had earlier taken aim at British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, deriding him in March as "not Winston Churchill" and threatening to impose a "big tariff" on imports from the UK.
And Trump's Pentagon has floated the prospect of punishing NATO allies it believes have failed to support U.S. operations against Iran, including suspending Spain as a member and reviewing U.S. recognition of Britain's claim to the Falkland Islands.
Europe's Strategic Shift and Defense Initiatives
European governments have responded by stepping up efforts to increase cooperation among themselves, shoulder more of their own defense burden and jointly develop weapons systems to reduce reliance on the U.S., while trying to convince Trump of the value of maintaining transatlantic allies.
One European diplomat called Trump's threats a clear signal for Europe to invest more in its own security but said leaders were resigned to having to roll with the punches for now.
As "middle powers," the Europeans have limited options, especially given their dependence on their superpower ally for strategic deterrence against any possible attack from Russia, and analysts say the transition to greater self-reliance will take years.
Efforts to Maintain US Relations
In their efforts to mollify Trump, meanwhile, European officials have quietly stressed that many of their countries are allowing U.S. forces to use bases on their soil and their airspace during the Iran campaign.
But European leaders, some of whom had used flattery with Trump to defuse earlier crises, are also becoming wise to his negotiating tactics and more emboldened in standing up to him, analysts say.
Jeff Rathke, president of the American-German Institute at Johns Hopkins University, said that while Merz had seemed to charm Trump during earlier meetings, now he “is not trying to hide the critical assessment of what the United States has gotten itself into."
But the Europeans are also mindful that Trump, barred by law from running again, could feel unrestrained "to do whatever he thinks" on the world stage before he leaves office in January 2029, the European diplomat said.
As some European leaders sound the alarm about NATO's future, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told a conference in Warsaw there is no need to panic so long as Europe delivers on promised higher military spending, which Trump has long demanded.
Broader Strains on US Alliances
Even so, the strains on U.S. alliances extend well beyond Europe.
When Iran this week launched missile and drone
