Oil set for 3% weekly gain, investors weigh Middle East risk

By Georgina McCartney

HOUSTON (Reuters) -Oil prices were on track to gain around 3% on the week as Friday’s prices ticked up, with investors taking stock of a planned resumption in Gaza ceasefire talks in the coming days amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures was up 70 cents, or 0.94%, at $75.08 a barrel by 11:12 a.m. EDT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 67 cents, or 0.95%, to $70.86.

Brent was set for a 2.8% weekly gain and WTI was on track for a 2.4% rise on the week.

Both benchmarks have fluctuated this week, rising on Monday and Tuesday before falling on Wednesday and Thursday, largely on expectations of heightened or reduced Middle East risk.

Geopolitics is the leading force today that we are seeing, otherwise we are just waiting to see what happens with the (U.S.) election, and what direction that will push markets in,” said Tim Snyder, chief economist at Matador Economics.

An Israeli strike killed three journalists in south Lebanon on Friday, Lebanon’s health ministry said, and the UN refugee agency warned that Israeli airstrikes on a border crossing with Syria were hindering refugees trying to flee the war.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said there was a real sense of urgency in getting to a diplomatic resolution to end the conflict in Lebanon between Israel and Iran-aligned Hezbollah, while calling for the protection of civilians.

U.S. and Israeli officials are set to restart talks for a ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza in the coming days.

Investors continue to await Israel’s response to an Iranian missile attack on Oct. 1. A response could involve strikes on Tehran’s oil infrastructure, though media reports last week said Israel would strike military rather than nuclear or oil targets.

Elsewhere, traders are also seeking more clarity on China’s stimulus policies, though analysts do not expect such measures to provide a major boost to oil demand.

Goldman Sachs on Thursday left its oil price forecasts unchanged at between $70 and $85 a barrel for Brent in 2025, expecting the impact from any Chinese stimulus to be modest relative to bigger drivers such as Middle East oil supply.

Bank of America is forecasting Brent crude to average $75 a barrel in 2025 without any rolling back of OPEC+ production cuts into next year, it said in a note on Friday.

“Market participants remain fundamentally torn between supply risks due to the tense situation in the Middle East and demand concerns,” Commerzbank analysts said.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Robert Harvey in London and Florence Tan and Siyi Liu in SingaporeEditing by David Goodman and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)