Oil Prices Near Multi-Month Highs Amid Trump’s Iran Tensions

Impact of U.S.-Iran Tensions on Oil Prices

By Florence Tan

Current Oil Price Trends

SINGAPORE, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Oil prices are headed for their biggest monthly gains in years on Friday as tensions in the Middle East escalated over a possible U.S. attack on Iran that could disrupt supplies from one of the biggest OPEC producers.

Geopolitical Factors Affecting Supply

Brent crude futures fell 21 cents to $70.50 a barrel by 0139 GMT after rising 3.4% to close at its highest since July 31 on Thursday. The March contract expires later on Friday. The more active April contract slid 37 cents to $69.22.

Disruptions in Global Oil Supply

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 39 cents to $65.03 a barrel after gaining 3.4% to settle at its highest since September 26 in the previous session.

Responses from Major Oil Producers

Both benchmarks are set to post their first monthly gain in six months with Brent up more than 16% to notch its biggest monthly jump since January 2022. WTI is on track to rise more than 14% in January, its biggest monthly gain since July 2023.

Tensions have escalated amid a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East. U.S. President Donald Trump urged Iran on Wednesday to come to the table and make a deal on nuclear weapons or face a U.S. attack, drawing a threat from Tehran to strike back hard.

"This has resulted in added risk premium being built into the (oil) price as traders’ factor in possible disruptions to Iranian exports or Strait of Hormuz flows," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.

The Trump administration is hosting senior defence and intelligence officials from Israel and Saudi Arabia for separate talks on Iran this week in Washington, according to two people familiar with the matter. U.S. officials say Trump is reviewing his options but has not decided whether to strike Iran.

"Given elevated inflation and this year's mid-term elections, we do not anticipate protracted oil supply disruptions," JPMorgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said in a note.

"If military action does occur, we expect it to be targeted, avoiding Iran’s oil production and export infrastructure."

Citi expects the United States and Israel to take restrained actions against Iran in the near term, including limited U.S. actions and oil tanker seizures, citing a 70% probability for this outcome.

Disruptions in Kazakhstan, Russia and Venezuela have affected a combined 1.5 million barrels per day of supply in January, JPMorgan analysts said, adding that the Arctic wave in the U.S. is estimated to reduce crude and condensate output by 340,000 bpd this month.

Kazakhstan said on Wednesday it was restarting the huge Tengiz oilfield in stages, aiming to reach full production in a week after three unexplained electrical fires earlier this month impacted 7.2 million barrels of oil output.

Bad weather has hit Russian oil exports while Venezuela was forced to cut production after U.S. forces ousted the South American country's President Nicolas Maduro early this month.

The country's interim government approved on Thursday a sweeping reform of its main oil law. The Trump administration also broadly eased sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry on Thursday, all of which could raise Venezuela's oil and gas output and encourage investments.

(Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)