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MULTI-BILLION DOLLAR TRADE OPPORTUNITY FOR G7 IN EMERGING MARKETS

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MULTI-BILLION DOLLAR TRADE OPPORTUNITY FOR G7 IN EMERGING MARKETS

Standard Chartered Launches G7 to E7 Trade Performance Index30% Annual Growth Opportunity for G7 to E7 Export Trade

Standard Chartered launches its G7 to E7 Trade Performance Index (Index), which examines the trading partnerships of the G7 with E7 (Emerging Seven) economies – Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and Vietnam. The UK, US and France stand to realise the greatest gains if they can fulfil their E7 trade potential. Germany tops the performance table as the only country to currently exceed its total E7 trade potential.

The Index reveals that G7 nations and companies are underperforming in their export trade to the E7. Of the 49 trade routes between individual G7 and E7 countries, only nine currently exceed or meet expectations. The remaining 40 trade routes underperform by a total of US$162 billion against their export potential. This constitutes a 30% annual growth opportunity for the G7 to the E7. The E7 represent a critical highway to future growth for the G7 in 2018 and beyond.

G7 to E7: The Standard Chartered Trade Performance Index

Country by Ranking* Total Actual Exports (US$bn) Total Predicted Exports (US$bn)
Germany 109.2 55.7
Canada 23.1 29.3
Japan 154.6 218.7
Italy 21.0 32.3
France 30.7 42.0
US 162.9 209.0
UK 33.6 48.0
Total 535.1 635.0

 

* The Index ranks the G7 countries by their actual export trade performance relative to their predicted exports to E7 countries. Countries are ranked higher on the Index if their actual export for each E7 trade route exceeds export potential, while they rank lower if their actual export for each trade route does not meet the predicted export.

Michael Vrontamitis, Head of Trade for Europe and Americas, Standard Chartered: “With membership of the G7 no longer being a passport to growth, the Standard Chartered G7 to E7 Trade Performance Index reveals real growth opportunities. Every G7 nation has much to gain from accelerating their export performance in the seven economies we have identified as the Emerging Seven (E7).

“Our Index reveals that if G7 economies reorient their trade strategy towards the E7 the size of the prize is an additional US$162 billion annually, with an immediate 30% gain. It is clear the E7 represent multi-billion dollar trading opportunities for G7 governments and businesses searching for export diversification and growth. Companies should develop sector specific strategies and corridors, then identify how they can increase their opportunities there.”

Key Findings:

UK

  • UK exports to the E7 could potentially increase by US$16.9 billion to US$64.9 billion when the country leaves the EU. While the EU remains a critical trading partner, UK businesses could capitalise on export opportunities with all E7 countries.

USA

  • The US is currently the largest exporter to the E7 overall, but it is falling below potential by over a quarter (28.3%). If the US makes the most of all E7 trade, total exports would rise by 3.1% – an extra US$46.1 billion a year.

France

  • France has much to gain from trading with the E7. It is exporting a quarter less to the E7 than its potential and could grow overall exports by 2.4% by meeting predicted exports to the E7, representing a US$12 billion-a-year uptick.

Italy

  • Italy could experience a 2.5% uplift in exports, or US$11 billion annually, if it makes the most of the opportunities in the E7. The Italy to China route could see an extra US$7.3 billion of annual trade – the fourth biggest economic opportunity of all 49 trade routes.

Japan

  • Japan has significant opportunities in the E7. Japanese businesses could increase exports to the E7 by US$69 billion, which would give the entire economy a 10.7% boost. The Japan-China trade route has the biggest G7 to E7 opportunity by value.

Canada

  • Canada takes current second place in the G7 to E7 trade race, but it falls below predicted trade by more than a quarter (28.6%). Its annual total global exports could grow by 1.7% by maximising on E7 trade.

Germany

  • Germany is the greatest G7 to E7 success story. It exceeded its total predicted value of trade with the E7 – exporting US$109 billion – double what is predicted. However, Germany could be at risk of over-reliance to one market – China.

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UK earmarks a further $2.3 billion for its COVID vaccine push

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UK earmarks a further $2.3 billion for its COVID vaccine push 1

LONDON (Reuters) – British finance minister Rishi Sunak will announce an extra 1.65 billion pounds ($2.30 billion) to fund the country’s fast vaccination rollout as part of his annual budget statement on Wednesday, the finance ministry said.

“Protecting ourselves against the virus means we will be able to lift restrictions, reopen our economy and focus our attention on creating jobs and stimulating growth,” Sunak said in a statement.

Britain has so far given a first vaccination more than 20 million people, or more than one in three adults, Europe’s fastest vaccination rollout.

“The new money will continue to vaccinate the population and ensure every adult is offered a dose of a vaccine by July 31,” the ministry said.

A further 33 million pounds will be spent on vaccine testing and development to protect against future outbreaks and variants and 22 million pounds will fund a study to test the effectiveness of combinations of different COVID-19 vaccines.

(Writing by William Schomberg; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

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Wall Street Week Ahead: Investors weigh new stock leadership as broader market wobbles

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Wall Street Week Ahead: Investors weigh new stock leadership as broader market wobbles 2

By Lewis Krauskopf

NEW YORK (Reuters) – A shakeup in stocks accelerated by the past week’s surge in Treasury yields has investors weighing how far a recent leadership rotation in the U.S. equity market can run, and its implications for the broader S&P 500 index.

Moves this week further spurred a shift that has seen months-long outperformance for energy, financial and other shares expected to benefit from an economic recovery, while a climb in Treasury yields weighed on the technology stocks that have led markets higher for years.

The two-track market left the benchmark S&P 500 down for the week, and sparked questions about whether it could sustain gains going forward if the tech and growth stocks that account for the biggest weights in the index struggle.

So far this year, the S&P 500, which gives more influence to stocks with larger market values, is up 1.5%, while a version of the index that weights stocks equally is up 5%.

“That just tells us the gains are less narrow, more companies are participating, and I think that’s healthy,” said James Ragan, director of wealth management research at D.A. Davidson.

The focus on market leadership comes as investors are weighing whether the S&P 500 is due for a significant pullback after a 70% run since March, with the rise in long-dormant yields the latest sign of trouble for equities as it means bonds are more serious investment competition. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note this week jumped to a one-year peak of 1.6% before pulling back.

Economic improvement will be in focus in the coming weeks, including the monthly U.S. jobs report due next Friday, as will the country’s ability to ensure widespread coronavirus vaccinations, especially as new variants emerge.

Tech and momentum stocks helped drive returns in 2020 “when everyone was locked down and all they had was their computer,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management. “Now it seems with the vaccines, the stimulus and the prospect of reopening that we are looking out toward a recovery phase.”

The shift in the market this week is building on one that was fueled in early November, when Pfizer’s breakthrough COVID-19 vaccine news generated broad bets on an economic rebound in 2021.

Among the moves since that point: the S&P 500 financial and energy sectors are up 29% and 65%, respectively, against a nearly 9% rise for the benchmark index and 7% rise for the tech sector. The Russell 1000 value index has gained 16.5% against a 4.3% climb for its growth counterpart, while the smallcap Russell 2000 is up 34%.

“You definitely are seeing the reopening trade that has pretty much come alive here,” said Gary Bradshaw, portfolio manager of Hodges Capital Management.

Despite the gains, there remains “plenty of room for the reflation trade to run from a valuation perspective,” Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said in a report this week. RBC is “overweight” the financials, materials and energy sectors.

Rising rates tend to be favorable for more cyclical sectors, David Lefkowitz, head of Americas equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note, with financials, energy, industrials and materials showing the strongest positive correlations among sectors with 10-year Treasury yields.

Still, how long the market’s reopening trade lasts remains to be seen. Investors may be reluctant to stray from tech and growth stocks, especially with many of the companies expected to put up strong profits for years.

Any setbacks with the economy or with efforts to quell the coronavirus could revive the stay-at-home stocks that thrived for most of 2020.

And with a GameStop-fueled retail-trading frenzy taking hold this year, banks and other stocks in the reopening trade may fail to draw the same attention from amateur investors as stocks such as Tesla, said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments.

“There isn’t the pizzazz to those stocks,” Meckler said. “There rarely is a potential for stocks to make the kind of moves that big tech growth stocks have made.”

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; editing by Richard Pullin)

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Exclusive: European officials urge World Bank to exclude fossil-fuel investments

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Exclusive: European officials urge World Bank to exclude fossil-fuel investments 3

By Kate Abnett and Andrea Shalal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Senior officials from Europe have urged the World Bank’s management to expand its climate change strategy to exclude investments in oil- and coal-related projects around the world, and gradually phase out investment in natural gas projects, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

In the six-page letter dated Wednesday, World Bank executive directors representing major European shareholder countries and Canada, welcomed moves by the Bank to ensure its lending supports efforts to reduce carbon emissions.

But they urged the Bank – the biggest provider of climate finance to the developing world – to go even further.

“We … think the Bank should now go further and also exclude all coal- and oil-related investments, and further outline a policy on gradually phasing out gas power generation to only invest in gas in exceptional circumstances,” the European officials wrote in the letter, excerpts of which were seen by Reuters.

The officials took note of the World Bank’s $620 million investment in a multibillion-dollar liquified natural gas project in Mozambique approved by the Bank’s board in January, but did not call for its cancellation, one of the sources said.

The World Bank confirmed receipt of the letter but did not disclose all its contents. It noted that the World Bank and its sister organizations had provided $83 billion for climate action over the past five years.

“Many of the initiatives called for in the letter from our shareholders are already planned or in discussion for our draft Climate Change Action Plan for 2021-2025, which management is working to finalize in the coming month,” the Bank told Reuters in an emailed statement.

The Bank’s first climate action plan began in fiscal year 2016.

The United States, the largest shareholder in the World Bank, this month rejoined the 2015 Paris climate accord, and has vowed to move multilateral institutions and U.S. public lending institutions toward “climate-aligned investments and away from high-carbon investments.”

World Bank President David Malpass told finance officials from the Group of 20 economies on Friday that the Bank would make record investments in climate change mitigation and adaptation for a second consecutive year in 2021.

“Inequality, poverty, and climate change will be the defining issues of our age,” Malpass told the officials. “It is time to think big and act big in finding solutions,”

He said it was also launching new reviews to integrate climate into all its country diagnostics and strategies, a step initiated before the letter from the European officials, said one of the sources.

(Reporting by Andrea Shalal in Washington and Kate Abnett in Brussels; Additional reporting by Valerie Volcovici in Washington; Editing by Matthew Lewis)

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