Morning Bid: A one-two payrolls, tariff sucker punch?

Market Reactions to Economic Developments

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee

Impact of U.S. Jobs Report

Investors are holding their nerve heading into a U.S. jobs report that will likely show a labour market that is sluggish but not crumbling while markets brace for a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump's global tariff. 

Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices

The prospect of the ruling, which could come as early as Friday, has left markets in a cautious mood, with the U.S. dollar standing tall and stocks struggling for direction.

Corporate Developments in Mining Sector

Geopolitical tensions though are keeping oil prices at their highest in two weeks, while global defence stocks were buoyed by Trump's call for a huge increase in defence spending.

The court ruling will likely steal the limelight and risks sparking a severe bout of volatility after the sweeping tariffs jolted global markets last year. All the same, it's notable that it did not take too long for markets to shrug off the initial tariff shock and take risk assets higher.

Anticipation that the court will strike down the tariffs rose after the November arguments in the case when conservative and liberal justices alike voiced scepticism about whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 gave Trump the authority to levy the duties.

And so, a potential fight over securing perhaps $150 billion in refunds from the U.S. government for duties already paid by importers looms. There is also the question of what happens to the many trade deals agreed with much fanfare last year.

But before that markets will get the clearest snapshot of the U.S. labour market from December's employment report, although it may not be enough to allay investor worries about where interest rates are headed this year.

Markets are pricing in two cuts for the year while a deeply divided Federal Reserve indicated just one cut. Traders broadly expect the Fed to stand pat on rates later this month.

The report is expected to shed light on how the labour market remained stuck in what economists and policymakers have called a "no hire, no fire" mode.

On the corporate news front, a mega deal is brewing after Rio Tinto and Glencore said they were in talks for an agreement that could create the world's largest mining company with a combined market value of nearly $207 billion.

The companies said the expectation was it would involve an all-share buyout of "some or all" of Glencore by Rio Tinto, although very few details were disclosed.

Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:

Economic events: German trade data for November, Euro zone retail sales data for November

(By Ankur BanerjeeEditing by Shri Navaratnam)