Morning Bid: Markets eye US CPI and record high

Morning Bid: Markets eye US CPI and record high

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

Stocks near record highs and Bill Hwang and Roaring Kitty in the headlines lend this week an air of deja vu ahead of U.S. inflation data.

British labour numbers, German sentiment, U.S. producer prices, an appearance from Jerome Powell and earnings releases due through Tuesday take a back seat to Wednesday’s CPI figure.

As in 2021, it’s expected to begin with a 3 and markets are trying to guess whether signs of inflation picking up were a blip or a trend. A downside surprise is likely to loosen the shackles on stock rallies in Hong Kong, London and New York.

Britain’s FTSE already stands by record highs, having touched that peak only on Friday, as did Europe’s STOXX 600 index. The S&P 500 is close to topping March’s record high.

The Hang Seng has added 20% in a rally that is entering a fourth week. Recent Chinese economic data show some steadiness but investors have found encouragement on the policy front.

Rumblings from the Politburo in the direction of property support, marketing plans for special bond sales and falling lending point to monetary policy reaching its limits and has fed expectations of spending to support the economy.

Currency markets were largely marking time ahead of the CPI release with the dollar trading firmly and pushing the yen to its weakest since it was swinging wildly at the start of May, when traders reckoned Japanese authorities had intervened.

GameStop and other so-called meme stocks soared Monday after flag bearer Roaring Kitty – real name Keith Gill – posted on X.com for the first time in three years, in perhaps a hint at the froth that could be unleashed if CPI undershoots.

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

Economics: German ZEW surveys, British wages, U.S. PPI

Earnings: Bayer, Veolia, Vodafone, Alibaba

Speeches: Fed’s Powell, BoE’s Pill

(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)