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Key trends for property investors to watch in 2020

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Key trends for property investors to watch in 2020

By Jerald Solis, Director, Experience Invest

The new year invariably acts as a time for reflection, prediction and target setting. This is true for businesses, consumers and investors.

Jerald Solis

Jerald Solis

In 2020, this period has become a little more interesting; just last month the Conservative Party secured an overwhelming majority in the General Election, while at the end of the current month the UK will – as it stands – leave the European Union (EU). As such, after a long period of uncertainty and hesitancy, we could be about to witness widespread and rapid change across the country.

This is certainly true in the property sector. There is a palpable sense among many businesses that the coming 12 months will provide an opportunity to address pressing issues, allowing the market to make meaningful progress after a challenging three years.

But what changes are we likely to see? Here are my thoughts on some of the key trends that will shape the property market over the coming year…

Brexit to release pent-up demand

To date, there have been four different Brexit deadlines. It has already been moved from 29th March 2019 to 12th April to 31st October 2019, and then to 31st January 2020. But it now seems likely that the UK’s departure from the EU will be confirmed at the end of this month.

In December’s election, Prime Minister Boris Johnson campaigned primarily on the promise to “get Brexit done”; the majority his party won has strengthened his position to do so. Indeed, on 9th January MPs voted 330 to 231 in favour of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill – the bill that will implement the UK government’s Brexit deal.

But what does this mean for the UK property market?

The prevailing sentiment among property experts is that once Brexit has passed, there will be an upturn in market activity. Buyers and sellers who had become immobilised by Brexit uncertainty may soon be sparked back into life.

In Q3 2019 Experience Invest surveyed more than 1,000 UK property investors, finding that just over half (51%) of the respondents were confident there will be an increase in property listings and sales once Brexit is complete. The majority (55%) also admitted they had paused on their investment plans over the course of 2019 as they awaited the outcome of Brexit.

Brexit now looks set to go ahead on 31st January 2020. With this will come greater clarity and certainty over how investment markets will perform and what state the UK economy will be in – one would expect this to provide the foundations for greater activity in the property market over the next 12 months.

Property prices to grow, but probably not in London

Since 2010, the average UK house price has risen from £167,469 to £232,944. This impressive growth has come in a period that included the aftermath of the global financial crisis, four general elections, three new prime ministers and the Brexit saga.

This upward trend looks set to continue; according to a poll of 27 property market analysts carried out by Reuters, UK house prices are predicted to rise by 1.5%in 2020 and 2.3% in 2021.

However, there are sub-trends hiding within this data. Most notably, the way the London market is performing compared to the rest of the UK.

The aforementioned Reuters poll also suggests that prices in London will fall by 1.5% in 2020, which is lowering the overall total. In fact, this is a trend that has been prevalent over recent years, with prices in the capital stagnating or declining while other regions grow at pace.

Analysis of 2019’s data by Zoopla shines a light on this trend. It found that on average a property in London fell in value by £71.23 each day in the first six months of 2019 – by comparison, real estate in the South East (+£35.32), NorthWest (+£20.39), Wales (+£18.03), Yorkshire (+£12.37) and North East (+£6.97) was all on the rise, with the West Midlands leading the way (+£36.58).

This trend looks set to continue in 2020. In fact, regional house price growth could be spurred on further by the Prime Minister’s promises to reignite the Northern Powerhouse initiative – given Johnson’s party enjoyed much success across the North in December’s election, there is an onus on the Conservatives to reward its newer supporters with greater investment into the region.

New-builds to remain on the public agenda

Looking beyond the prospects for market activity and price growth, one of the defining property trends of 2020 will almost certainly be new-build developments.

The Housing Crisis remains one of the country’s most-talked-about domestic issues, with the shortage of available housing impacting on most areas of society.

As a result, successive governments throughout the 21st Century have made bold statements and set bolder targets for increasing the country’s housing stock. And the new Conservative Government is no exception: it has promised to deliver a million new homes by 2025.

Only time will tell if the Government can reach this target. Evidence from the past two decades does not paint a particularly pretty picture; house-building has typically fallen well short of the levels proposed. This makes the upcoming Budget – taking place on 11th March – hugely important; will Chancellor Sajid Javid unveil any major reforms or spending commitments that could fuel activity in the new-build space?

At Experience Invest we work closely with property developers and local councils to ensure private investment is made available for much-needed real estate projects. It will be interesting to see if the government can do more during the current five-year parliament to ensure there is more collaboration between the public and private sector when it comes to building more new homes across the UK.

Jerald Solis is Business Development & Acquisitions Director at Experience Invest. Experience Invest provides property investors in the UK and overseas access to exclusive investments across a variety of asset classes. The London-based company has been running for 15 years, working closely with developers and investors to deliver excellent real estate investment opportunities.

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Shares rise as cyclical stocks provide support; yields climb

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Shares rise as cyclical stocks provide support; yields climb 1

By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

NEW YORK (Reuters) – A gauge of global equity markets snapped a 3-day losing streak to edge higher on Friday, as the recent selling pressure on high-flying big technology-related stocks eased even as investors showed a preference for economically sensitive cyclical sectors.

Oil prices fell from recent highs as Texas energy companies began preparations to restart oil and gas fields shuttered by freezing weather, while the U.S. Treasury yields extended their recent rise.

The MSCI’s global stock index was up 0.47% at 681.88, after losing ground for three consecutive sessions.

On Wall Street, stocks steadied as cyclical sectors edged higher while tech names made modest advances after concerns about elevated valuations led to some selling in recent sessions.

“What we saw (this week) represents a market that is tired and may not do very much. So we are headed for some sort of a pullback, but I don’t think we’re there just yet,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.

“Investors are not really pulling out of the market, but they are becoming more cautious. It already has factored in another good positive earnings season.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 119.97 points, or 0.38%, to 31,613.31, the S&P 500 gained 12.93 points, or 0.33%, to 3,926.9 and the Nasdaq Composite added 92.58 points, or 0.67%, to 13,957.93.

The S&P 500 technology and communication services sectors, housing high-value growth stocks, were among the smallest gainers in early trading, while financials, industrials, energy and materials rose more than 1%.

European shares edged higher on Friday as an upbeat earnings report from Hermes boosted confidence in a broader economic recovery. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was 0.64% higher.

U.S. Treasury yields on the longer end of the curve rose to new one-year highs on Friday as improved risk appetite boosted Wall Street, while the yield on 30-year inflation-protected securities (TIPS) turned positive for the first time since June.

Core bond yields have pushed higher globally, led by the so-called reflation trade, where investors wager on a pick-up in growth and inflation. Growing momentum for coronavirus vaccine programs and hopes of massive fiscal spending under U.S. President Joe Biden have spurred reflation trades.

The benchmark 10-year yield was last up 5.1 basis points at 1.338%, its highest level since Feb. 26, 2020.

Oil prices retreated from recent highs for a second day on Friday as Texas energy companies began preparations to restart oil and gas fields shuttered by freezing weather.

Unusually cold weather in Texas and the Plains states curtailed up to 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil production and 21 billion cubic feet of natural gas, analysts estimated.

Brent crude futures were down 28 cents, or 0.44%, at $63.65 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 66 cents, or 1.09%, to $59.86.

Copper jumped to its highest in more than nine years on Friday and towards a third straight weekly gain as tight supplies and bullish sentiment towards base metals continued after the Chinese New Year.

Spot gold XAU= was down 0.58% at $1,785.71 an ounce.

The dollar lost ground on Friday, extending Thursday’s decline as improved risk appetite sapped demand for the safe-haven currency and drew buyers to riskier, higher-yielding currencies. The dollar index was off 0.295%.

Bitcoin hit yet another record high on Friday, hitting a market capitalization of $1 trillion, blithely shrugging off analyst warnings that it is an “economic side show” and a poor hedge against a fall in stock prices.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Nick Zieminski)

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Oil falls after surging past $65 on Texas freeze

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Oil falls after surging past $65 on Texas freeze 2

By Stephanie Kelly

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Thursday despite a sharp drop in U.S. crude inventories, as market participants took profits following days of buying spurred by a cold snap in the largest U.S. energy-producing state.

Brent crude fell 41 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $63.93 a barrel. During the session it rose as high as $65.52, its highest since January 2020.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 62 cents, or 1%, to settle at $60.52 a barrel, after earlier reaching $62.26, the highest since January 2020.

Brent had gained for four straight sessions before Thursday, while WTI had risen for three.

“The market probably got a little bit ahead of itself,” said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “But make no mistake, this selloff in oil doesn’t solve the problems. The problems are going to persist.”

Though some Texas households had power restored on Thursday, the state entered its sixth day of a cold freeze. It has grappled with refining outages and oil and gas shut-ins that rippled beyond its border into Mexico.

The weather has shut in about one-fifth of the nation’s refining capacity and closed oil and natural gas production across the state.

“The temporary outage will help to accelerate U.S. oil inventories down towards the five-year average quicker than expected,” SEB chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said.

Prices dropped despite a decrease in U.S. oil inventories. Crude stockpiles fell by 7.3 million barrels in the week to Feb. 12, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, compared with analysts’ expectations for an decrease of 2.4 million barrels.

Crude exports rose to 3.9 million barrels per day, the highest since March, EIA said.

“The big nugget was the big jump in exports of crude oil,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. “We’ll have to see what happens with that next week weather in Texas, but I have been looking for a pickup there for a while.”

Oil’s rally in recent months has also been supported by a tightening of global supplies, due largely to production cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers in the OPEC+ grouping, which includes Russia.

OPEC+ sources told Reuters the group’s producers are likely to ease curbs on supply after April given the recovery in prices.

(Additional reporting by Yuka Obayashi in Tokyo; editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Steve Orlofsky, David Gregorio and Jonathan Oatis)

 

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GameStop frenzy sparks fresh investment in stock-trading apps

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GameStop frenzy sparks fresh investment in stock-trading apps 3

By Jane Lanhee Lee

OAKLAND, Calif. (Reuters) – The recent trading frenzy centered on GameStop Corp and other “meme” stocks is sparking a wave of investor interest in start-ups aiming to mimic the success of Robinhood Markets Inc, whose no-fee brokerage app has helped drive a trading boom.

Public.com, a direct competitor to Robinhood that boasts a host of blue-chip backers, said on Wednesday it had raised $220 million, valuing it at $1.2 billion on the private market. Another well-heeled rival, Stash, said earlier this month it had raised $125 million, while Webull Financial LLC, backed by Chinese investors, is also raising fresh funds after enjoying an influx of new users.

Robinhood, meanwhile, raised some $3.4 billion in the midst of the GameStop furor to assure its stability amid rapid growth and demands by its trading partners that it post more collateral.

The fresh investments are coming even as government regulators ramp up scrutiny of Robinhood and others involved in the GameStop trading. A U.S. congressional committee on Thursday grilled the chief executive of Robinhood and a YouTube streamer known as “Roaring Kitty,” among others, as it probes possible improprieties, including market manipulation.

Robinhood came under stiff criticism from some quarters for restricting trading in GameStop and other shares at the height of the frenzy, a move the company says it was forced to make due to requirements of partners that settle trades. It has also drawn scrutiny for a business model that relies on payments for sending trading business to partner brokerages, a practice Public.com and some other rivals are pledging to avoid.

Investors see rich opportunity in bringing easy stock trading to smartphone users globally, though the companies say they are also cognizant of the risks.

Stash, which doubled its active accounts to over 5 million by the end of last year, operates with only four trading windows a day to discourage rapid speculative trading, it said.

U.K.-based Freetrade.io told Reuters by email that its user numbers last year grew six-fold to 300,000 and by mid-February had reached 560,000. It said it had raised a total $35 million, including from crowd-funding rounds from over 10,000 customers.

But it does not offer margin trading or riskier offerings. “These products encourage investors to behave as if they are gambling or speculating rather than investing,” a Freetrade.io spokesman said.

Interest in trading apps is soaring globally. In Mexico, trading app Flink launched seven months ago and already has a million users, according to co-founder and chief executive Sergio Jimenez. He said Mexicans can buy fractions of U.S. stock through the platform, but not Mexican stocks – yet.

“Ninety percent of them are investing for the first time,” said Jimenez.

Flink raised $12 million in a funding round in February led by Accel, an early investor in Facebook. Accel is also an investor in Public.com and Berlin-based Trade Republic Bank Gmbh, which allows European retail investors to buy fractions of U.S. stocks, according to Accel partner Andrew Braccia.

“The bigger story here is there’s just this global trend of… accessibility,” he said.

Start-up investors also see opportunity in the infrastructure behind the trading apps. DriveWealth, which serves Mexico’s Flink and 70-plus other online trading apps around the world, has hundreds more partnerships in the pipeline, according to founder and chief executive Bob Cortright. DriveWealth provides the technology to power digital wallets and trading apps, and also provides clearing and brokerage service to its business partners.

“This is this is only beginning,” said Cortright. “The fact that you could have a smartphone in your hand in India, for instance, and buy $10 worth of Coca-Cola stock at an instant, that’s pretty game-changing.”

Venture capital investments in U.S. fintech companies hit a record last year with $20.6 billion invested, according to data firm PitchBook. Globally, around $41.4 billion was invested in fintech companies in 2020.

(Reporting By Jane Lanhee Lee in Oakland; Editing by Jonathan Weber and Dan Grebler)

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