Published by Wanda Rich
Posted on May 31, 2022
ROME (Reuters) – Italy’s economy grew 0.1% in the first quarter from the previous three months, national statistics bureau ISTAT said on Tuesday, sharply revising up a preliminary estimate of a 0.2% contraction.
On a year-on-year basis, first quarter GDP was revised up to show growth of 6.2%, compared with the 5.8% printout in ISTAT’s flash estimate on April 31.
The breakdown of GDP components showed growth was based on a strong rise in investments, which contributed 0.8 percentage points and offset declines in consumer spending and a negative impact from trade flows.
Growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 was confirmed at 0.7% quarter-on-quarter. The year-on-year rate, originally reported at 6.2%, was revised up to 6.4%.
In the first quarter, consumer spending fell 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, government spending rose 0.2% and investments jumped 3.9% percent.
Imports rose 4.3%, outweighing a 3.5% increase in exports.
The economy ministry said in a statement the upward revision to GDP in the first quarter was in line with its most recent estimates.
The Treasury sees “a significant increase” in GDP in the second quarter, compared with the first three months, which would imply an annual growth forecast in line with, “or at least close to,” Italy’s official target of 3.1% set in April.
Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government last month revised down its 2022 economic growth forecast to 3.1% from a 4.7% projection made last September.
However, the current forecast is considered optimistic by most private bodies. Employers’ lobby Confindustria forecasts 2022 growth of just 1.9%, while the International Monetary Fund expects 2.3%.
ISTAT gave the following details on contributions to quarterly growth for the first quarter of this year and the last three months of 2021.
PERCENTAGE POINT CONTRIBUTIONS TO Q/Q GROWTH
Q1 2022
Final domestic demand 0.4
-Final national consumption -0.4
-Consumer spending -0.5
-Government spending 0.0
-Gross Fixed Investment 0.8
Inventory Changes 0.0
Net Exports -0.3
GDP 0.1
(Reporting by Gavin Jones, Giuseppe Fonte, editing by Keith Weir)
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