Ireland poised to elect left-wing president in rebuke to coalition

By Padraic Halpin

DUBLIN (Reuters) -Ireland looks set to elect a veteran independent left-wing lawmaker backed by the main opposition parties as president on Friday in what would be a bruising rebuke to the recently re-elected centre-right coalition.

Catherine Connolly, 68, a leading pro-Palestinian voice in parliament and long-time critic of the European Union in one of the bloc's most pro-EU member states, holds a wide opinion poll lead over the sole government-backed candidate.

Her election would continue a recent trend of putting a more independent voice in the largely ceremonial role. It would also reinvigorate the left-wing opposition, led by Sinn Fein, barely a year after the party's bid to break the governing Fianna Fail and Fine Gael parties' century-long grip on power fell short.

ANTI-GOVERNMENT TREND

"The trend of anti-government is emerging and will probably be the most important one when it comes to the next general election," due by January 2030, said Dublin City University politics professor Gary Murphy.

Connolly, a former clinical psychologist and barrister, held an 18-point lead over ex-Fine Gael cabinet minister Heather Humphreys in the final poll of the campaign last week.

Humphreys wasn't Fine Gael's first choice - their initial candidate withdrew due to illness. Fianna Fail's pick, former Gaelic football coach Jim Gavin, pulled out due to a financial scandal, an acute embarrassment for Prime Minister Micheal Martin.

While Connolly is viewed as most closely aligned to popular incumbent Michael D. Higgins, the former Labour Party culture minister completing his second seven-year term, she is closer than Higgins to the smaller parties of the far left.

Connolly's strong criticism of Israel's actions in the Gaza war, her support for a Palestinian state - echoing the stance of the government and most voters - and her opposition to increased military spending have helped garner support on the left.

While government ministers have repeatedly attacked her track record of opposing referendums to deepen Ireland's integration with the EU, it did not become a major issue in the campaign.

CONNOLLY HAS HELPED UNITE OPPOSITION LEFT

While the former deputy parliamentary speaker's opposition to government will be constrained in an office whose main power is the ability to test the constitutionality of legislation, Connolly has helped unite a divided left-wing opposition.

"Whether that translates into some sort of shared left platform in advance of a general election, I am not yet convinced," said Aidan Regan, professor of political economy at University College Dublin.

"I think it certainly raises the expectation amongst those who would like to see that happen."

(Reporting by Padraic Halpin; editing by Mark Heinrich)