Geopolitical Factors Influence Big Oil Earnings Amid Venezuela Speculation

Geopolitical Influences on Oil Companies

By Sheila Dang

Chevron's Position in Venezuela

HOUSTON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil and Chevron executives may face more questions about their investment opportunities in Venezuela than their actual quarterly earnings when they hold calls with analysts on Friday.

Exxon's Exploration in Guyana

The U.S. capture and removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro earlier this month opened a possible - albeit arduous - path for Big Oil to access the country's massive crude reserves, after President Donald Trump announced his vision for $100 billion of fresh American investment to boost and control Venezuelan oil output.

Impact of Oil Prices on Earnings

It was a dramatic geopolitical twist that followed renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and Russia-Ukraine peace talks during the fourth quarter of 2025, leading to fluctuating oil prices. Investors have also focused on widespread anti-government protests in Iran and a possible U.S. response in recent days. 

Market Reactions and Future Outlook

Exxon and Chevron report fourth-quarter and full-year earnings on Friday, while European oil majors Shell, TotalEnergies and BP will report next month. 

Chevron will be in the spotlight on Venezuela because it is the only American oil major currently operating in the country, though the topic will likely come up for all oil firms, said Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at advisory firm Hightower Advisors, a major shareholder in both Chevron and Exxon.

Venezuelan oil production accounts for 1% to 2% of Chevron's cash flow from operations, and the company could add another 1% to 2% in the next few years if it grows production, estimated Jason Gabelman, managing director of energy equity research at TD Cowen.  

Too many questions remain to determine the longer-term value of Venezuela to Chevron's business, Jean Ann Salisbury, a Bank of America Global Research analyst, wrote in a research note. 

"We continue to see Chevron as being in the key position, with existing personnel, relationships, and payment mechanisms in the country ... but we would require far more visibility to ascribe value," she wrote. 

Analysts said it is unlikely companies will unveil significant detail on potential Venezuela plans, given the long-term timeframe for oil projects.    

EXXON LIKELY TO FIELD QUESTIONS ON GUYANA

For Exxon, a major question is whether the company will be able to access new parts of the Stabroek Block in neighboring Guyana, where 30% of the prolific oilfield remains unexplored due to territorial disputes between Guyana and Venezuela, BofA's Salisbury wrote in a separate note on Monday.

Exxon leads the oil consortium operating the Stabroek with a 45% interest, while Chevron holds 30%.

Exxon CEO Darren Woods described Venezuela as "uninvestable" during a White House summit earlier this month, saying the company needed investment protections after its assets had been expropriated twice before. 

Elsewhere, Kazakhstan's biggest oilfield Tengiz suffered a production shutdown this month, the latest setback after the field's main export route was attacked by Ukrainian naval drones. The field is a major asset for Chevron, which leads the joint venture operating Tengiz, and Exxon holds a stake. 

WEAKER OIL PRICES COULD SQUEEZE EARNINGS

Exxon has previously signaled that lower crude prices could cut its fourth-quarter upstream earnings by up to $1.2 billion compared with the previous three months. Wall Street expects the largest U.S. oil producer to report $1.68 in adjusted earnings per share, up by 1 cent from the year-ago quarter, according to analyst estimates compiled by LSEG. 

Analysts expect Chevron to report $1.46 in adjusted earnings per share, down 29% year-over-year. 

Brent crude prices averaged $63.08 per barrel during the October to December quarter, down 7.5% from the previous three months, as fears of an oversupplied oil market persisted.

U.S. natural gas prices rose 32% to an average of $4.04 per million British thermal units in the fourth quarter, driven by colder weather and liquefied natural gas export demand.

As usual, investors will continue to pay attention to any changes to the companies' outlook for the rest of the year, in addition to shareholder returns, said Link of Hightower Advisors.

"I don’t expect any changes to dividend or buyback plans for 2026, but their guidance around these areas will be important to hear," she said. 

(Reporting by Sheila Dang in Houston; Editing by Nia Williams)