ECB set to hold rates through 2026 on steady economic outlook: Reuters poll

By Indradip Ghosh

BENGALURU (Reuters) -The European Central Bank will hold interest rates at least until the end of 2026, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters, who also expected the euro zone economy to grow steadily with contained inflation despite a highly-uncertain global outlook.

The case for a longer pause has strengthened since the ECB last cut rates in June, with inflation remaining persistently around the 2% target, growth stable and unemployment at a record low.

By contrast, some of its peers, including the United States, have struggled in part due to the White House applying sweeping tariffs on imported goods at rates not seen since the 1930s.

Banking on that resilience, the ECB kept rates on hold in October for a third straight meeting. Many Governing Council members suggested the central bank was set for a long hold. Last month, President Christine Lagarde said the central bank was "in a good place," but emphasised that it was not "a fixed good place".

'A FRAGILE EQUILIBRIUM'

Almost all economists in the November 14-19 Reuters poll, 84 of 90, said the ECB will hold its deposit rate at 2% next month.

A 73% majority, 65 of 89, said rates would stay through the middle of next year. A two-thirds majority, 46 of 71, expected no further rate changes through the end of next year, up from 57% in last month's survey. Only 21 expected one or more rate cuts by the end of 2026.

"For the time being, we are in a good place with growth and inflation better than expected and more in line with the price stability objective of the ECB. But it's not yet a definitively good place," said Alain Durre, head of Europe macro research at Natixis.

"The most likely next step will be a cut rather than a hike because we are still in a fragile equilibrium... Risks to both inflation and growth outlooks are still skewed to the downside."

DOWNSIDE GROWTH RISK

A majority of economists, 24 of 30, in the October survey said the euro zone economy was more likely to grow slower than they expected over the coming year than faster.

The 20-nation economy would expand 1.4% this year, 1.1% next year and 1.4% in 2027, poll medians predicted, broadly in line with the European Commission's latest outlook. 

Inflation, currently at 2.1%, was forecast to average 2%, at the ECB's target, this quarter but fall to 1.7% in Q1. Most economists expected inflation to average below the target through 2026.

"Against the backdrop of a broadly balanced growth outlook, inflation in the near term is set to undershoot the ECB’s 2% target, although this is largely driven by energy, and to a lesser extent the stronger euro," noted Bill Diviney, head of macro research at ABN AMRO Bank.

"Near-term risks are tilted to another cut given the looming inflation undershoot, but those risks could tilt towards a hike as 2027 develops." 

(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)

(Reporting by Indradip Ghosh; Polling by Aman Kumar Soni and Reshma Ann Samuel; Editing by Ross Finley and Alex Richardson)