Finance
Caixabank sees higher profits and margins as Spanish economy outperforms
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on January 30, 2026
3 min readLast updated: January 30, 2026
Quick Summary
Caixabank projects profit growth due to Spain's strong economy. Loan growth and stable rates support this outlook, with a target of 20% return-on-equity by 2027.
Caixabank Projects Increased Profits as Spain's Economy Thrives
Caixabank's Financial Outlook
By Jesús Aguado
Profit and Margin Expectations
MADRID, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Caixabank on Friday said it expects lending income and profits to rise this year and next, driven by stronger loan growth as Spain's economy continues to outperform the rest of the euro zone.
Impact of Economic Growth
Spanish banks have benefited from higher income on loans tied mostly to variable rates, though recent interest rate cuts have squeezed margins.
Dividend and Profit Projections
Caixabank's net interest income - a measure of earnings on loans minus deposit costs - fell 1% year-on-year in the fourth quarter to 2.72 billion euros, in line with analysts' forecasts.
Full-year NII at the country's biggest lender by domestic assets dropped 3.9% to 10.67 billion euros, matching the bank's guidance for a roughly 4% fall in 2025.
For 2026, it expects NII to finish above the 11 billion euros it had originally targeted for next year. In an updated outlook, it forecast compound annual NII growth of 4% over 2025 to 2027, ending that period at around 12.5 billion euros.
The new target is supported by an expected 6% rise in performing loans over the period, with Caixabank forecasting Spanish economic growth of 2.9% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026 - roughly double the pace of the euro zone.
It forecasts its tangible return-on-equity ratio, a measure of profitability, to rise to around 20% by the end of 2027 from a previously expected target of greater than 16%.
The bank's chief executive officer Gonzalo Gortazar told a press briefing that the new profitability target could imply a rise in net profit to around 7 billion euros by 2027 from 5.89 billion euros at the end of 2025.
At 1221 GMT, Caixabank shares were 6.3% higher as brokers Renta 4 and Jefferies welcomed a strong set of results with a solid fee performance and highlighted its revised outlook on the back of stable rates as a catalyst for the stock.
Fees rose 4.3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter and its insurance business increased by 6.3%.
Fourth-quarter net profit fell 2.9% to 1.49 billion euros, slightly above expectations of 1.43 billion euros, after a 166 million euro charge linked to a banking tax.
The bank kept unchanged its 2026 dividend cash payout of between 50% and 60% of consolidated net profit.
($1 = 0.8384 euros)
(Reporting by Jesús Aguado; additional reporting by Emma Pinedo; Editing by David Latona, Mark Potter and Thomas Derpinghaus)
Key Takeaways
- •Caixabank expects increased profits due to Spain's economic growth.
- •Loan growth is a key driver of Caixabank's financial outlook.
- •Net interest income fell slightly but aligns with forecasts.
- •Caixabank aims for a 20% return-on-equity by 2027.
- •Dividend payout remains between 50% and 60% of net profit.
Frequently Asked Questions about Caixabank sees higher profits and margins as Spanish economy outperforms
1What is return on equity?
Return on equity (ROE) is a measure of financial performance calculated by dividing net income by shareholder's equity. It indicates how effectively management is using a company's assets to create profits.
2What is a dividend?
A dividend is a portion of a company's earnings distributed to shareholders, typically in cash or additional shares. It represents a reward for investing in the company.
