Italy's government, businesses warn of heavy impact of U.S. tariffs

By Antonella Cinelli and Angelo Amante

ROME (Reuters) -Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and its top business lobby warned on Wednesday that looming U.S. tariffs would have a major impact on the country's exports and already struggling economy.

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to announce sweeping new tariffs on global trading partners later in the day, upending decades of rules-based trade, risking cost increases and likely drawing retaliation from all sides.

"It is clear that the introduction of new tariffs would have heavy repercussions for Italian producers", Meloni said while hosting a prize-giving ceremony for Italian cuisine in Rome.

Meloni added that she did not rule out "adequate responses" to protect the exports of the euro zone's third largest economy, though she did not elaborate.

Italy posted a trade surplus with the United States of 39 billion euros ($42.14 billion) in 2024, the third largest in the 20-nation euro area, Eurostat data shows.

Earlier on Wednesday, business association Confindustria said Italy's economy would grow by 0.6% this year, half the government's official target and down from a 0.9% forecast made by the group in October.

The economy expanded by a modest 0.7% in both 2024 and 2023. It eked out 0.1% growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 from the previous three months, after stagnating in the third quarter. Most analysts expect no significant pick-up in the near term.

Confindustria said that while its forecasts incorporated already-announced U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium and what it called "record levels of uncertainty" on trade policy, they did not factor in the effects of an escalating trade war.

In a worst case scenario, with permanent 25% U.S. tariffs on all imports, rising to 60% for China, and retaliatory measures against U.S. exports, Italy's growth would fall to around 0.2% this year, it said.

'NEED FOR DIALOGUE'

"We cannot imagine that for an exporting nation like ours the tariffs won't be a problem, they will be yet another setback for our companies," Confindustria's President Emanuele Orsini said at a conference where the forecasts were presented.

The group said that businesses most reliant on sales to the United States, and thus most vulnerable to new tariffs, included pharmaceuticals, autos, machinery, and the fashion and food and wine industries.

Right-wing Meloni is a friend of Trump and she and her government have been more cautious than others in the 27-nation EU about how the bloc should react to the tariffs.

Italy's EU Affairs Minister Tommaso Foti echoed Meloni's conciliatory tone at the Confindustria event, saying Europe should avoid a tit-for-tat response to Trump.

"It must not be a gut reaction, but a reasoned one. There is a need for dialogue... The less we raise our voice the better," he said.

(Reporting by Antonella Cinelli and Angelo Amante, writing by Gavin Jones, editing by Giulia Segreti and Gareth Jones)