Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 21, 2025
1 min readLast updated: January 24, 2026
Brokerages are divided on the Fed's December rate decision due to mixed job growth signals. Some expect a rate cut, while others foresee no change.
(Reuters) -Global brokerages remain split on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rate at its December meeting or keep policy unchanged, as mixed signals on job growth and unemployment last week clouded the economic outlook.
Morgan Stanley, J.P.Morgan and Standard Chartered have dropped expectations for a December rate cut. Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and HSBC still anticipate a quarter point-reduction, but note the odds of a hold have risen sharply.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for December policy meeting:
Brokerage December policy Fed Funds Rate (end
meeting of 2025)
Citigroup 25 bps 3.00-3.25% (March
2026)
Wells Fargo 25 bps 3.50-3.75%
Goldman Sachs 25 bps 3.50-3.75%
J.P.Morgan No cut 3.75-4.00%
Barclays 25 bps 3.50-3.75%
Nomura No cut 3.75-4.00%
Morgan Stanley No cut 3.75-4.00%
Deutsche Bank 25 bps 3.50-3.75%
BofA Global No cut 3.75-4.00%
Research
BNP Paribas 25 bps 3.50-3.75%
HSBC 25 bps 3.50-3.75%
Standard No cut 3.75-4.00%
Chartered
Macquarie 25 bps (by Q1 3.50-3.75%
2026)
UBS Global 25 bps 3.50-3.75%
Research
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru)
The main topic is the division among global brokerages regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates in December.
Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and HSBC anticipate a quarter-point reduction in December.
Mixed signals on job growth and unemployment are clouding the economic outlook, influencing the Fed's decision.
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