Finance
Major brokerages expect Fed to cut rates again in December
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on March 21, 2025
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(Reuters) -Major brokerages expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver a single 25-basis-point interest rate cut at its final policy meeting in December.
The Fed on Wednesday cut rates by 25 bps, as expected, to cushion job market weakness, but flagged that missing data from the government shutdown could prompt more cautious policymaking.
Following decision, Nomura said it expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its December policy meeting. But other brokerages still see another round of easing by the end of the year.
Traders are now pricing in a 67.9% chance of a December cut, according to LSEG data.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2025:
Brokerage Total cuts in No. of more Fed Funds Rate
2025 cuts in 2025 (end of 2025)
Citigroup 25 1 3.00-3.25%
bps (March 2026)
Wells Fargo 25 1 3.50-3.75%
bps
Goldman 25 1 3.50-3.75%
Sachs bps
J.P.Morgan 25 1 3.50-3.75%
bps
Barclays 25 1 3.50-3.75%
bps
Nomura 0
bps no cut 3.75-4.00%
Morgan 25 1 3.50-3.75%
Stanley bps
Deutsche Bank 25 1 3.50-3.75%
bps
BofA Global 0 3.75-4.00%
Research bps no cut
UBS Global 50 1 3.25-3.50% (by
Research bps(by Q1 Q1 2026)
2026)
BNP Paribas 25 1 3.50-3.75%
bps
HSBC 25 1 3.50-3.75%
bps
UBS Global 50 1 3.25-3.50% (by
Wealth bps(by Q1 Q1 2026)
Management 2026)
Standard 25 1 3.50-3.75%
Chartered bps
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair, Anil D'Silva, Tasim Zahid and Rashmi Aich)