Thailand's political chaos: what happens next?

BANGKOK (Reuters) -Thailand's Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on Tuesday as it considers a petition filed by 36 senators seeking her dismissal.

The senators have accused the 38-year-old premier of dishonesty and breaching ethical standards in violation of the constitution over a leaked telephone conversation with Cambodia's former premier Hun Sen. 

WHO WILL LEAD THE GOVERNMENT NOW?

With the Prime Minister suspended, Suriya Juangroongruangkit, the deputy prime minister and minister of transport, will become the caretaker leader.

Suriya, 70, is a veteran of Thai politics, having entered the fray in the 1990s and served in various cabinet positions for multiple parties since, including the predecessor of the ruling Pheu Thai party.

WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE COURT CASE?

The court has ordered Paetongtarn to stop performing her duties until it makes a decision. In a statement, the court said the premier will have 15 days to respond to the allegations made by the petitioners, following which proceedings will continue.

WHAT CAN PAETONGTARN DO IN THE INTERIM?

As part of a cabinet reshuffle announced earlier on Tuesday, ahead of the court's statement, Paetongtarn was appointed as the minister of culture.

Once she is sworn into the position on July 3, she will be able to attend cabinet meetings in her capacity as a minister, despite the suspension from the Constitutional Court.

WHAT ABOUT PARLIAMENT?

Thailand's parliament will reconvene on July 3.

The Bhumjaithai party, a former member of Paetongtarn's ruling alliance, had previously threatened to straightaway move a no-confidence motion against the premier and her cabinet on Thursday.

But such a move cannot take place with the premier now suspended. In any case, for the motion to succeed, Bhumjaithai would need the support of the People's Party, the largest opposition group that is yet to decide on its position. 

ARE THERE ANY OTHER CASES UNDERWAY?

The National Anti-Corruption Commission, which has a wide remit, is also probing Paetongtarn for any ethical violations emanating from the leaked phone call between her and Hun Sen.

This is based on a petition filed by the same group of 36 senators who also moved the Constitutional Court.

It is unclear when the NACC will conclude its investigation, but this process could lead to another case at Thailand's Supreme Court, which may rule to ban Paetongtarn from politics.

WHAT ABOUT PUBLIC PROTESTS?

Several thousand people gathered in the Thai capital on Saturday in the largest anti-government protest since the Pheu Thai party took power in 2023.

The organisers, who have called on Paetongtarn to step down, have threatened to escalate protests if she does not quit.

Some of those who led Saturday's demonstration are veterans of previous protest movements that played a role in bringing down governments led by Paetongtarn's father, Thaksin Shinawatra, and her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra.

IS THAKSIN UNDER PRESSURE?

Former premier Thaksin, who remains one of Thailand's most influential but divisive politicians, is currently facing a criminal court case, in which he is accused of violating the country's strict lese majeste law during a media interview in 2015.

Thailand has one of the world's harshest lese majeste laws, setting jail terms of up to 15 years for anyone convicted of defaming, insulting or threatening King Maha Vajiralongkorn and his close family.

The Supreme Court is also holding a series of hearings on Thaksin's prolonged hospital stay, in lieu of prison, following his return to Thailand in 2023 after years in self-exile.

An adverse verdict in this case could see Thaksin, 75, sent to jail.

(Reporting by Panu Wongcha-um, Editing by Devjyot Ghoshal and Saad Sayeed)