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Exit Polls Show Portugal's Centre-Right Ad Ahead in Election, No Majority
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on May 18, 2025
1 min readLast updated: January 23, 2026
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Portugal's AD leads in exit polls but lacks a majority. Socialists and Chega follow closely, with potential coalitions under discussion.
Portugal's Centre-Right AD Leads Election Polls but Lacks Majority
LISBON (Reuters) -Portugal's ruling centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) was poised to win the most votes in Sunday's early parliamentary election, but short of a full majority, three exit polls showed, putting the AD in the 29%-35.1% range.
In the previous election in March 2024, the AD won around 29%, leading to a minority government that collapsed a year later. To win an outright majority, a party needs to garner at least 42% of the vote.
The polls published by the three main television channels - SIC, RTP and TVI - put the centre-left Socialists at 19.4%-26%, closely followed by the far-right Chega, with whom AD leader and acting Prime Minister Luis Montenegro refuses to make any deals, in the 19.5% to 25.5% range.
Business-friendly Liberal Initiative (IL), a party some analysts see as a potential coalition ally of the AD, was likely to garner 4%-8% of the vote, meaning their potential alliance could only reach a majority of 116 in the 230-seat parliament if both perform at the top of the exit poll estimates.
(Reporting by Sergio Goncalves; writing by Andrei Khalip, editing by Catarina Demony)
Key Takeaways
- •Portugal's centre-right AD leads in exit polls.
- •AD falls short of a full majority with 29%-35.1% votes.
- •Socialists and Chega closely follow AD in polls.
- •Potential coalition with Liberal Initiative discussed.
- •AD leader Luis Montenegro rules out deals with Chega.
Frequently Asked Questions about Exit polls show Portugal's centre-right AD ahead in election, no majority
1What is the current standing of the Democratic Alliance in the polls?
The Democratic Alliance (AD) is poised to win the most votes in the election but is short of a full majority, according to three exit polls.
2What percentage is needed for a party to secure a majority in Portugal?
To win an outright majority in Portugal, a party needs to garner at least 42% of the votes.
3Which parties are closely following the Democratic Alliance in the polls?
The centre-left Socialists are polling between 19.4% and 26%, closely followed by the far-right Chega party.
4What role might the Liberal Initiative play in the election?
The Liberal Initiative (IL) is expected to garner 4%-8% of the vote and could be a potential coalition ally for the Democratic Alliance.
5What happened to the previous minority government formed by the AD?
The previous minority government formed by the AD collapsed a year after it was established following the March 2024 election.
