UK's watered down welfare reforms will push 150,000 into poverty, modelling shows

By Sarah Young

LONDON (Reuters) -New British welfare reforms are still expected to push 150,000 people into poverty despite Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government watering down the measures, according to fresh modelling ahead of a key parliamentary vote.

Seeking to quell a rebellion threatened last week, Starmer revised his planned welfare cuts in an attempt to win over more than 100 lawmakers from his own party who had threatened to revolt over the issue in a vote on Tuesday.

He amended the bill so that changes to make it tougher to collect some disability and sickness benefits would now apply only to new applicants, while the millions of people who already rely on benefits would no longer be affected.

Publishing analysis of the updated policy, the government on Monday estimated that an extra 150,000 people will be pushed into relative poverty in 2030, 40% fewer than the 250,000 forecast to be affected before the changes.

A spokesperson for Starmer told reporters that the analysis was not an impact assessment but poverty modelling. "What it doesn't reflect is the wider action we are taking to lift people out of poverty and raise living standards," they said.

The government has said it is investing 1 billion pounds ($1.4 billion) a year to help people with disability and long-term health conditions into jobs, as part of broader employment support across the parliamentary term.

Lawmakers opposed to the welfare cuts will now have to assess whether the changes Starmer has made are enough to convince them to back the bill.

Starmer has argued that Britain's disability benefits system is too costly to sustain, and makes it too difficult for people who can work to do so, by penalising them for their earnings.

Those who oppose the welfare cuts say the changes mean too many people will still be harmed and argue that a two-tier system will be created.

($1 = 0.7304 pounds)

(Reporting by Sarah Young; additional reporting by Elizabeth Piper; Editing by Kate Holton)