Headlines
Trade war, labour costs herald weakest UK outlook since 2022, CBI says
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on June 1, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 23, 2026
Global Banking & Finance Review®
Company
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on June 1, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 23, 2026
UK businesses foresee a decline in output due to trade war impacts and rising costs, marking the weakest outlook since 2022, says CBI.
By Suban Abdulla
LONDON (Reuters) -British firms expect output to slide over the next three months, in their gloomiest outlook since September 2022, as the implications of U.S. tariffs and higher payroll taxes weigh on the private sector, an industry survey showed on Monday.
The Confederation of British Industry said the output expectations gauge of its surveys of the services sector, manufacturers and retailers fell to a net balance of -30 in May, down from -21 in April.
Private sector activity fell in the three months to May to -26, down from -19 a month earlier.
"Firms highlight numerous headwinds: the continued impact of higher employer National Insurance Contributions and the National Living Wage hike on their costs and operations, (and) further uncertainty from developments in the global trade landscape, compounded by a general sense of weak demand at home," Alpesh Paleja, deputy chief economist at the CBI, said.
Firms expected to cut hiring over the next three months to meet cost pressures, the CBI said, including a 25 billion pound ($34 billion) increase in social security contributions announced by finance minister Rachel Reeves last October and a nearly 7% uplift in the minimum wage.
The CBI survey contrasts with the trend in a poll from the Institute of Directors published on Sunday which showed confidence amongst business leaders about the UK economy jumped to its highest since August 2024, although it remained negative.
Britain's economy grew more strongly than expected in the first three months of 2025, but the Bank of England said it expects a modest hit to growth from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.
Reeves is set to deliver her first multi-year spending review on June 11 which will set budgets for public services through to 2029.
Anna Leach, chief economist at the IoD, urged Reeves to avoid any new spending commitments that might require further tax rises and said it was "concerning see UK government borrowing costs rising amidst building pressure to unwind attempts to moderate public sector spending".
The CBI data was based on a survey of 650 companies between April 25 and May 14 and the IoD surveyed 483 generally small firms between May 15 and May 28.
($1 = 0.7422 pounds)
(Reporting by Suban Abdulla; editing by David Milliken)
UK firms expect output to decline over the next three months, marking their most pessimistic outlook since September 2022, according to the CBI.
The decline in business sentiment is attributed to the impact of U.S. tariffs, increased payroll taxes, and rising employer National Insurance Contributions.
Firms are expected to reduce hiring in response to cost pressures, including a significant increase in social security contributions announced by the government.
The CBI survey indicated that private sector activity fell to -26 in the three months to May, down from -19 the previous month.
The CBI survey contrasts with a poll from the Institute of Directors, which showed a rise in confidence among business leaders about the UK economy.
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