Explainer-A call for peace in Turkey: what's in it for key actors?

By Jonathan Spicer

ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkey's 40-year battle against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) could be nearing an end after its jailed leader, Abdullah Ocalan, called on the militant group on Thursday to lay down its arms and disband.

Ocalan's statement, announced by the opposition pro-Kurdish DEM party that held three recent meetings with the PKK leader at his island prison, comes four months after the idea was first raised by a political ally of President Tayyip Erdogan. 

There was no immediate response to Ocalan's appeal from the PKK commanders' headquarters in the mountains of northern Iraq

WHAT'S IN IT FOR ERDOGAN?

Ending the insurgency would be a major achievement for Turkey's president after past efforts failed to resolve a conflict in which more than 40,000 people have died since 1984. Erdogan has called it "one of the last obstacles blocking the goal of a great and powerful Turkey".

Though it remains unclear whether a ceasefire or peace deal could ultimately emerge, Ocalan's call may also boost Erdogan's own political prospects. In order to extend his rule beyond 2028, when his last term as president ends, he would need the support of an opposition party, perhaps DEM, in order to amend the constitution or bring about early elections.

He could also capitalise on military gains against the PKK in mountainous northern Iraq, where it is based, and in Syria, where the ouster of Bashar Al-Assad in December has led to the establishment of a strongly pro-Turkey leadership in Damascus. Ocalan's call could prompt the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria to expel members of the PKK-aligned People's Protection Units (YPG), as Ankara has demanded. 

ANY RISKS?

There are risks for Erdogan in resurrecting Ocalan, a figure reviled by most Turks, including supporters of his ruling AK Party (AKP).

Mehmet Guner, head of the Martyrs' Families Association for Turkish troops, told Reuters he was "extremely unhappy and very angry" that the government backed Ocalan's public call. "For 40 years, this country has fought against terrorism, sacrificing thousands of martyrs and veterans... We absolutely do not find it appropriate to negotiate with the leader of the terrorists in this manner," he said. 

On the Kurdish side, if PKK fighters refuse to heed Ocalan's call and violence continues or even worsens, the distrust that many Turkish Kurds already have for Erdogan could deepen. 

WHAT'S IN IT FOR THE KURDS?

The pro-Kurdish political movement, the target of a years-long judicial crackdown, will hope Ocalan's call eventually translates into democratic reforms and greater cultural and language rights for Kurds. 

A peace deal could also ease social tensions generally across Turkey, and boost the under-developed economy of its mainly Kurdish southeast. Shortly after one of DEM's meetings with Ocalan in December, Ankara announced a $14 billion regional development plan for the southeast.

"Many Kurds simply do not trust the Turkish state. Any meaningful disarmament process would require concrete steps from Ankara - such as guarantees of political and cultural rights for Kurds - before, not after, a peace deal is made," said Gareth Jenkins, an Istanbul-based political analyst.  

If DEM continues to cooperate with Erdogan's AKP - reversing years of fierce opposition - it could also seek to have reinstated the many elected mayors that Turkish authorities have removed from positions and replaced with pro-government officials. 

WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR SYRIA?

The Syrian Kurdish SDF, a key U.S. ally, is still battling Turkish and Turkish-backed Syrian forces in the border regions. 

If SDF commander Mazloum Abdi can filter YPG members from his group, the Kurdish forces could more easily join Syria's newly-forming security structure, centralising and stabilising the country as it emerges from 13 years of civil war. 

"The YPG will likely heed Ocalan if he asks them to play nice with Turkey, even if some leaders in Qandil (the PKK headquarters in Iraq) advise the group to do otherwise," said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute. 

IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S.-TURKISH TIES? 

While the United States deems the PKK terrorists, it has been allied with the YPG's umbrella group in the fight against Islamic State in Syria. Turkey has sharply criticised this U.S. stance as a betrayal of a NATO ally. 

Steps toward ending the PKK insurgency could "remove the PKK thorn from U.S.-Turkish relations and pave the way for their anticipated reset under the second Trump administration," Cagaptay said. 

"Removing the PKK from Syria's political landscape would pave the way for Turkey to cooperate with Washington and the Syrian Kurds on many issues beneficial to U.S. interests, such as containing the Islamic State, rebuilding the country, and establishing stable Turkish ties with different Syrian groups," he said.

(Reporting by Jonathan Spicer, Birsen Altayli, Ece Toksabay and Daren Butler; Editing by Gareth Jones)