Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 19, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 26, 2026
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Goldman Sachs reports that a Ukraine ceasefire won't significantly boost Russian oil output due to OPEC+ constraints, despite easing sanctions.
(Reuters) - A potential Ukraine ceasefire and the associated easing in sanctions on Russia are unlikely to substantially increase Russia's oil flows, Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine.
"We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports," Goldman Sachs said.
OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other allies, pumps about half the world's oil.
The bank assumes that OPEC+ is likely to postpone its planned gradual ramp-up in oil production to July this year from April, on increased compliance with OPEC+ targets by Russia and several other OPEC+ producers, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy.
OPEC+ pushed the plan to begin raising output to April, extending its latest layer of cuts through the first quarter of 2025 in December due to weak demand and rising supply outside the group.
On Monday, Russia's RIA state news agency reported Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying that OPEC+ producers were not considering further delays in the monthly oil supply increases.
Russia, as one of the world's top oil suppliers, holds substantial sway over global oil markets and prices.
Goldman Sachs continues to expect potential recoveries in positioning and valuation to nudge Brent up to $79 per barrel later this month.
Brent crude prices were trading at about $76 a barrel as of 0537 GMT on Wednesday. [O/R]
(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)
Goldman Sachs stated that a potential Ukraine ceasefire and easing sanctions on Russia are unlikely to significantly increase Russia's oil flows.
Goldman Sachs believes that Russia's crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ target of 9.0 million barrels per day rather than current sanctions.
As of Wednesday, Brent crude prices were trading at about $76 a barrel, with Goldman Sachs expecting it to rise to $79 per barrel later this month.
OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia, pumps about half of the world's oil and has a significant influence on global oil markets.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak indicated that OPEC+ producers were not considering further delays in the monthly oil supply increases.
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