Italy's Meloni torn between Trump and European allegiance

By Crispian Balmer and Angelo Amante

ROME (Reuters) - Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni finds herself playing a political balancing act as Europe moves to bolster its defences. 

A nationalist with deep admiration for U.S. President Donald Trump, she is battling to reconcile the growing gulf between her ideological instincts, which lie with Washington, and Italy's strategic ties to the European Union, analysts say.

Meloni was the only EU leader to attend Trump's inauguration in January and has carefully steered clear of any criticism of the U.S. president, even as he has hit Europe with tariffs and threatened to abandon Ukraine in its war with Russia.

While she has taken part in emergency talks with European partners on how to navigate the upheavals caused by Trump's foreign policy, her engagement at times has seemed unenthusiastic, prompting critics at home to accuse her of isolating Italy within the EU.

Meloni, who has been in power since 2022, dismissed suggestions that she was under the sway of Trump as she headed into a summit of European leaders this week.

"I don't blindly follow either Europe or the United States ... I am in Europe because Italy is in Europe, so it's not like we're thinking of going somewhere else, but I also want the West to be compact," she told parliament.

Ever since Meloni founded her Brothers of Italy group in 2012, she has placed close ties with the United States at the heart of her foreign policy, while watering down initial, fierce euroscepticism.

Trump's strong-arm tactics with old allies as he looks to enhance American power has wrong-footed pro-Atlanticists, while forcing Europe to hastily review its geopolitical options and shore up its defences.

The turmoil has put on hold Meloni's hopes of serving as a bridge between Europe and the White House, with Europe's two nuclear powers France and Britain taking the lead in forging a response to Trump, while Germany grabs headlines with plans for a huge spending splurge to scale up its military.

"Right now, Meloni does not have the leverage to play a mediating role with Trump," said Giovanni Orsina, a politics professor at Rome's Luiss University.

"If Trumpism enters a second, more constructive phase, she might be able to play a role, leveraging political and personal affinities."

DEFENCE BUDGET

Meloni last month called for an "immediate summit" between the United States and its allies after Trump lambasted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the White House, but Washington ignored her appeal.

Sources in Meloni's office, who declined to be named, said the Italian leader was seeking a meeting with Trump later in March or early April, when the European Union is due to impose counter tariffs on 26 billion euros ($28 billion) worth of U.S. goods in response to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium.

In her address to parliament this week, Meloni questioned the wisdom of retaliatory tariffs and urged Europe to continue its military cooperation with the United States inside NATO.

Spooked by Trump's suggestion he might not defend NATO members in future, the European Commission has laid out plans to boost the bloc's military spending by 800 billion euros ($869 billion), while France has offered to consider extending its nuclear umbrella to European allies.

"It is right that Europe equips itself to do its part, but it is at best naive, at worst mad to think that today it can be done alone without NATO," Meloni said, declining to say if heavily indebted Italy would ramp up its own defence budget.

Italy is one of the countries that spends least on defence in NATO -- just 1.5% of gross domestic product in 2024, well below the 2% threshold NATO says members should spend and far from the 5% demanded by Trump.

This has undercut her standing in Washington, diplomats say.

"Trump's perspective is that everybody must pay," said Kurt Volker, a former U.S. NATO ambassador who worked with the first Trump administration.

"He will probably single out other countries before he gets to Italy ... But it'll be in his sights," he told Reuters.

ITALIAN INDUSTRY 

Despite U.S. pressure, Meloni faces opposition from her coalition ally, the far-right League, not to join the European Commission's "ReArm" project. 

"Try and ask our mothers what they think. ... You'll see they all say the same thing. 'No'," said Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, a senior League member.

There is little public support for defence spending in Italy, where the anti-war stance of Pope Francis resonates. An IPSOS opinion poll this month said 39% of voters were opposed to ReArm against 28% in favour, with the rest undecided. 

However, Italy's sizeable armaments industry, including heavy weights such as Leonardo and Fincantieri, risks missing out on a bonanza if Meloni shuns the project.  

"What people should understand is that now is a very important time for the defence industry to expand, to grow and to create new jobs and it would be strange if Italy did not look into such a possibility," European Commissioner for Defence Andrius Kubilius told reporters on Wednesday. 

Nathalie Tocci, head of Italy's Institute of International Affairs think tank, said Meloni could not indefinitely sit on the fence between Washington and Brussels.

"Her heart lies with America, but in the end she will follow her head, which is basically telling her that Italy is in Europe. Our economy is entwined with Germany and you can't change that," she said.

($1 = 0.9206 euros)

(This story has been corrected to say that Meloni has been in power since 2022, not 2023, in paragraph 5)

(Writing by Crispian Balmer; Editing by Frances Kerry)