Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on March 18, 2025
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
A phone call between Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin is on markets' radar this morning as the U.S. pushes for a ceasefire and peace deal in Ukraine - ahead of a slew of central bank meetings later in the week.
The leaders' conversation takes place in a moment of calm for traders, with stocks stabilising and progress to peace likely to send European gas prices down and the euro higher.
Putin's demands seem familiar, but Trump said they would be talking about land, power plants and "dividing up certain assets" and that he thinks agreement is possible.
The European Union's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said on Monday the conditions demanded by Russia to agree to a ceasefire showed Moscow does not really want peace.
Trade in the Asia session was driven by another burst of enthusiasm for China, which has been an unlikely beneficiary of Trump's rattling of U.S. markets and growth expectations.
The latest push came from the release of another surprisingly weak U.S. retail sales report, and the White House confirming reciprocal tariffs will come into effect on April 2 - putting pressure on the dollar and hoisting gold.
At the same time China has announced some childcare subsidies and other consumer-friendly measures, while data on Monday showed small signs of a pickup in retail spending.
The Hang Seng notched a three-year peak and its almost 23% rise for the year so far is easily the largest of any major market. [MKTS/GLOB]
Gains were broad with miners, automakers, tech and retail stocks higher. The Shenzhen shares of electric-vehicle maker BYD leapt to a record as the company unveiled a new platform it says can recharge electric cars as quickly as pumping gas.
The New Zealand dollar was also at three-month highs with short-sellers seemingly spooked by New Zealand's exposure to China's consumers via dairy exports. [NZD/]
On investors' radar will be Nvidia's annual software developer conference, where CEO Jensen Huang, who will be delivering the keynote address on Tuesday, is expected to defend his nearly $3 trillion chip company's dominance as pressure mounts on its biggest customers to rein in the costs of artificial intelligence.
At the conference this week, Nvidia is also expected to reveal details of a chip system called Vera Rubin, the successor to its Blackwell chips.
Central bank meetings in Japan, the U.S., Britain, Sweden and Switzerland round out the week.
Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
-Trump-Putin phone call
-German ZEW surveys
(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)
