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BNP Paribas expects half a percentage point of ECB hikes in 2026
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 26, 2025
1 min readLast updated: January 24, 2026
Quick Summary
BNP Paribas anticipates a 0.5% ECB rate hike in 2026, driven by fiscal stimulus and increased euro zone growth forecasts.
BNP Paribas Predicts ECB Interest Rate Hikes for 2026
LONDON (Reuters) - BNP Paribas expects the European Central Bank to hike interest rates by half a percentage point next year as fiscal stimulus boosts price pressures, it said on Wednesday.
The French bank said it had revised up its euro zone growth forecasts by 0.4 percentage points to 1.3% this year and 0.5 percentage points to 1.5% in 2026 due to higher defence and infrastructure spending.
It still expects the ECB to cut its policy rate to 2% in June.
(Reporting by Yoruk Bahceli; editing by Alun John)
Key Takeaways
- •BNP Paribas expects ECB to hike rates by 0.5% in 2026.
- •Euro zone growth forecast revised up to 1.5% for 2026.
- •Increased defence and infrastructure spending cited.
- •ECB policy rate expected to cut to 2% by June.
- •Fiscal stimulus seen as boosting price pressures.
Frequently Asked Questions about BNP Paribas expects half a percentage point of ECB hikes in 2026
1What is the main topic?
The article discusses BNP Paribas's forecast of ECB interest rate hikes in 2026 due to fiscal stimulus and euro zone growth.
2What are the growth forecasts?
BNP Paribas revised euro zone growth forecasts to 1.3% for this year and 1.5% for 2026.
3What factors influence the rate hike prediction?
The prediction is influenced by fiscal stimulus, increased defence, and infrastructure spending.
