With a winter UK General Election on the cards for the first time since 1923, ETX Capital have carried out research on how financial markets have reacted to UK & US elections in recent years.
With both the major UK parties promising huge spending increases, this is sure to impact the financial markets, with the current ruling party the Tories contradicting almost 30 years of statements around fiscal frugality by pledging to spend, spend, spend. The markets already had to adjust to the new approach of Boris Johnson in July, and will once again need to react to the changing landscape and ‘promises’ each are making. Off the back of some of the most reactive elections in UK history looking back at the financial markets reaction to previous UK elections provides a potential insight into the future.
- Boris Johnson’s rise to the position of Prime Minister saw the Euro gain almost €0.02 against the pound. The biggest amount since the EU referendum – €0.04.
- David Cameron’s re-election in 2015 saw the pound rise against the Dollar and Euro. A stark contrast to the huge decrease it saw following the referendum vote only a year later.
- Tony Blair’s third and final election as prime minister didn’t spell great things for the Pound as it slumped almost 4% against the Dollar and 1% against the Euro.
This current election is shaping up to be one of the narrowest elections in years as only two main parties seem capable of achieving their own parliament. With Boris Johnson leading the Conservative party to their first general election since the departure of Theresa May, it will show how the country views Boris in comparison to his fellow party members and the level of support for the only party confirming they will definitely continue with Brexit. While the long march of Jeremy Corbyn continues, Labour will be hoping the last 4 years of campaigning will finally be able to make an impact on the wider public thanks to his anti-austerity rhetoric. A number of factors and events can influence the behavior of the markets, whether it be directly or indirectly. How does ‘UK Politics’ impact international markets? ETX Capital studied the market, to see how it has differed throughout the years.
The in-depth study focuses on the fluctuation of mainstream financial markets and indicators such as the Dow Jones and the price of Gold, as well as the industry specific Volatility Index. The volatility index helps to determine when there is too much optimism or fear in the market. When sentiment reaches one extreme or the other, the market typically reverses course.
Erratic Elections in Shared Markets
The study looks at how volatile the markets become in the immediate aftermath of elections in the United States and United Kingdom, looking at both the Dow Jones and the Volatility Index (VIX). With such a close and important economic relationship between these countries and their G20 members the wider impact is more than just an interesting statistic. Some of the key findings in the study of the aftermath of each election show:
- A 26% increase in the Dow Jones during the 1996 presidential election between Clinton and Dole.
- Boris Johnson’s recent election to PM saw the EUR improve its position on the GBP by over 2%.
- 2016’s election saw the battle of Trump and Clinton. The Dow Jones increased 13% following Trump’s election to office. Looking ahead to 2020, averages from previous years suggest that the Dow Jones will sit at an increase of around 3%.
- EU Referendum saw USD grow 11% on GBP. EUR jumped 5.5% too.
Gold and Global Events
Gold is a great historical indicator of global financial stability in the midst of rare global events. So far, the 21st century has seen some remarkable global events, making a huge impact on the world both politically and economically. But how much sway do these events have on the markets?
- In 2015, the Swiss Franc crash happened in tandem with an increase in gold value of 9.5%.
- Trump’s 2016 October election saw the value of gold dramatically drop 11.9%, with the volatility rating down to 15.1.
- Following on from Trump’s election, Theresa May’s election increased the value of gold 2.1%, but saw a decrease in the volatility index.
While the political outcome of the election happening tomorrow can never be certain, nor the change that this first winter election in decades will produce, it can be seen from these historic figures that the markets will not stay settled if a change in government occurs.
Dollar firms on sudden spike in U.S. Treasury yields
By Karen Brettell and David Henry
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The dollar index lifted off a seven-week low on Thursday after yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries jumped as high as 1.6% following weaker than expected bids in a U.S. government debt auction.
The move was the latest example of currency markets taking their cue from bonds, which have been moving on the changing outlook for economic growth and inflation following unprecedented government stimulus and monetary easing along with increasing COVID-19 vaccinations.
The dollar was up 0.13% against a basket of currencies in the early New York afternoon after dipping as much as 0.26% to 89.677, its lowest since Jan. 8.
The 10-year Treasury yield was 1.50%, still up 11 basis points on the day.
The rise in bond yields, after adjusting for inflation, has accelerated in recent days, indicating a growing belief that central banks may begin to pare back ultra-loose policies, even as officials maintain a dovish rhetoric.
“It has been a global move,” said Vassili Serebriakov, an FX strategist at UBS in New York. “Those higher bond yields are a symptom of expectations of a strong economic rebound after the pandemic.”
Data on Thursday showed that fewer Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week amid falling COVID-19 infections.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank would not tighten its policy until the economy improves.
Commodity-linked currencies, including the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, all hit three-year highs earlier in the day as their bond yields surged.
“The U.S. has actually lagged a lot of these other countries in terms of the yield moves,â€ said Erik Nelson, a macro strategist at Wells Fargo in New York, noting that New Zealandâ€™s 10-year government bond yield had gained 18 basis points on Thursday.
The Aussie reached $0.8007 against the greenback and was last down 1% at $0.7882. New Zealand’s kiwi hit $0.7463 and then fell, last off 0.8% for the day.
The Canadian dollar got as far as 1.2468 per U.S. dollar, but was last at $1.2569.
The euro rose to a three-week high, gaining 0.5% before backing off. It was last up 0.04% at $1.2175.
The safe-haven Japanese yen, which tends to underperform when global growth improves, weakened as far as 106.29 yen per dollar.
â€œSome of the currencies that typically donâ€™t do well in a global rebound are lagging,â€ Serebriakov said. Changes in the dollar have been different against different currencies recently. “Itâ€™s not just across the board the way it was last year when everything was driven by U.S. real yields falling and selling dollars across the board.â€
(Reporting by David Henry and Karen Brettell in New York; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
Shares and commodities keep climbing, so do bond yields
By Marc Jones
LONDON (Reuters) – World stocks headed back towards record highs with a third day of gains and the dollar dropped to a three-year low on Thursday, after top Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials took aim at rising bond market yields.
There was a lot to keep tabs on. A renewed retail frenzy re-ignited the likes of GameStop, bets on $70 a barrel oil and a decade high in copper prices drove a commodity currency rally [/FRX] and bond yields were still rising too. [GVD/EUR]
A near 1.9% jump in oil and gas shares ensured European markets followed Asia’s overnight gains [.T][.SS]. MSCI’s main world index, which spans 50 countries, was up 0.5%.
“There are two clear stories now” said CMC Markets senior analyst Michael Hewson. “You have the concerns about rising yields and they are continuing to move higher today, and then you have got an economic recovery story, which is helping lift the more moderately-valued parts of the market.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that U.S. rates could remain low for years, while ECB board member Isabel Schnabel was out early on Thursday saying it would fight any big increases in inflation-adjusted market rates.
“A too-abrupt increase in real interest rates on the back of improving global growth prospects could jeopardise the economic recovery,” she said. “Therefore, we are monitoring financial market developments closely.”
But bond markets are still not playing ball. Ten-year German Bund yields climbed 3 basis points in early trading. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were near one-year highs at 1.42% and on course for the biggest monthly rise since Donald Trump’s 2016 U.S. election victory jolted markets.
In the FX markets, the safe-haven U.S. dollar slumped near three-year lows as the Fed’s stance, ongoing progress with COVID vaccination programmes and commodity market uplift boosted riskier currencies.
The Australian and Canadian dollars both hit three-year highs of $0.7978 and C$1.2503 per U.S. dollar respectively.
The euro touched a one-month high of $1.2183. The safe-haven yen and Swiss franc both weakened.
“It is pretty clear that there is a pretty strong concentration in the commodity currencies,” said Saxo Bank’s John Hardy. “Even with emerging markets you are seeing it to a degree,” he added, pointing to how big energy importers like Turkey’s lira had faded.
MARATHON NOT A SPRINT
Crude oil climbed to 13-month highs after U.S. government data on Wednesday showed a drop in crude output as a deep freeze in Texas disrupted production last week. [O/R]
Copper prices steadied near $9,500 a tonne in London. It’s now at its highest level in almost a decade and could log its biggest monthly gains in 15 years this month.
In a possible sign of a renewed retail-driven frenzy in equity markets, GameStop’s Frankfurt-listed shares trebled as they opened on Thursday, overshooting the videogame retailer’s 100% surge on Wall Street overnight.
Other so-called “stonks” – an intentional misspelling of “stocks” – favoured by retail traders on sites such as Reddit’s WallStreetBets had also leapt again, although explanations for the moves were tenuous.
Some online stocks watchers had even pointed to a picture posted by an activist GameStop investor of a McDonald’s ice cream cone with a frog emoji as a cryptic sign.
“It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Whatever happens resist the urge to sell. The longer we hold the higher it goes,” said @catchme1fyoucan, one user in Italy of the retail trading platform eToro, in a discussion on GameStop.
(Reporting by Marc Jones, editing by Larry King)
Sterling steadies above $1.41 as risk currencies gain
By Ritvik Carvalho
LONDON (Reuters) – A rally in risk currencies on Thursday helped Britain’s pound steady near $1.41, a day after it hit its highest levels in nearly three years.
Sterling surged to $1.4295 on Wednesday, as analysts maintained a positive outlook on the currency.
Bets that Britain’s vaccine rollout will enable a quicker reopening of its economy and relief over a Brexit trade deal have pushed the pound up 3.5% against the dollar, making it the best-performing G10 currency this year.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday calmed fears that higher inflation would also lead to a tapering of monetary stimulus, saying the central bank would not change policy until the economy was clearly improving.
On Thursday, a broad risk-on tone in markets after Powell’s assurances spurred a rally in commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars and the Norwegian crown, pushing the dollar and other safe haven’s lower. [FRX/]
“Classical FX havens are weakening (CHF, JPY) and risk currencies such as GBP and NOK are performing well as U.S. rates are now rising in tandem with equities and commodities,” said Lars Sparresø Merklin, senior analyst at Danske Bank.
The pound is correlated with risk and growth and tends to gain along with risk-on plays in markets. It traded 0.1% higher at $1.4163 by 0911 GMT. It was 0.1% lower to the euro at 86.22 pence.
Issues over Brexit still simmer, although analysts maintain they won’t hurt the pound in the short to medium-term.
Northern Ireland’s first minister upped the ante on Wednesday in a dispute between the UK and the European Union over trade with the province, calling on Prime Minister Boris Johnson to “step up and protect the United Kingdom”.
Earlier, the UK and the EU held talks and agreed to press on with work to resolve the difficulties that have impeded deliveries of goods, notably food, from other parts of the United Kingdom to Northern Ireland and caused some shortages in supermarkets.
The dispute, which was heightened when the EU involved Northern Ireland in a COVID-19 vaccine ban, has cast a shadow over a post-Brexit trade deal agreed late last year and threatens to further sour future ties between the neighbours.
(Reporting by Ritvik Carvalho; editing by Larry King)
GameStop jumps nearly 19%; ‘meme stocks’ fade after another wild ride
By Aaron Saldanha, Thyagaraju Adinarayan and David Randall (Reuters) – GameStop Corp shares rallied on Thursday, finishing with double-digit gains...
Boeing, hit with $6.6 million FAA fine, faces much bigger 787 repair bill – sources
By Eric M. Johnson and David Shepardson SEATTLE/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Boeing Co will pay a $6.6 million to U.S. regulators...
Dollar firms on sudden spike in U.S. Treasury yields
By Karen Brettell and David Henry NEW YORK (Reuters) – The dollar index lifted off a seven-week low on Thursday...
On a retro style milk truck, London entrepreneur chases a ‘zero waste’ future
By Natalie Thomas LONDON (Reuters) – Heralded by the whirr of its underpowered electric engine and the clink of bottles...
Oil eases from 13-month high on worries output could rise
By Scott DiSavino NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil prices slipped from 13-month highs on Thursday as worries that four months...