US Stocks Mixed, Dollar Weak on Rate Cut Expectations

By Isla Binnie and Amanda Cooper

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -Major stock indexes were mixed at the New York open on Monday and the dollar stayed soft against its global peers as all eyes looked to a Federal Reserve meeting later this week that is expected to usher in a hotly-anticipated easing cycle.

Expectations have grown that the Federal Reserve could cut rates by as much as half a point this week in a bid to keep the economy on course for a soft landing, all while managing slowing jobs growth and moderating inflation.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 gained in early trading. Tech stocks weighed on the Nasdaq Composite, where growth plays NVIDIA, Microsoft and Tesla dipped.

XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said markets would look past the size of any rate cut on Wednesday to understand the Fed’s rationale.

If the Fed does start by cutting 50 bps, but at the same time reiterates that it is doing so to preserve the economy’s soft landing, this is stock-market positive. If it sounds like the Fed has to panic cut interest rates because of some grey cloud on the horizon, then expect stocks to sell off,” she said.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.31% at 100.72.

Investors also digested news from Sunday of a second assassination attempt on Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. Shares in his Trump Media & Technology company were volatile on Monday after ending the previous week sharply higher.

The Dow rose 0.6% to 41,635.89, the S&P 500 gained 0.07%, to 5,629.95 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.49%, to 17,595.00.

Flatness in the S&P was coming off gains last week which amounted to its strongest weekly performance this year.

MSCI’s All-World index rose 0.14%, to 828.05. Hopes for a big cut by the Fed have boosted stocks, taking the index 10% higher in the past six weeks.

PACKED SCHEDULE

Central banks in Japan and the UK also meet this week, with both expected to stand pat for now, while a packed data schedule includes U.S. retail sales and industrial production.

As for the Fed, futures show traders are placing a 59% chance of a half-point cut, up from 30% a week ago.

The odds narrowed sharply after media reports revived the prospect of a more aggressive easing.

Treasury yields were flat in early trading on Monday after prices rallied on Friday. Yields on U.S. government debt have been reducing in September, with the yield on the rate-sensitive two-year note down 35 bps.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR were 3.657% in early trading, while two-year yields US2YT=RR were 3.586%.

The Bank of England is expected to leave rates on hold at 5.00% when it meets on Thursday, though markets have priced in a 31% chance of another cut.

On Friday, it is the Bank of Japan’s turn. That meeting is widely expected to hold steady, though it may lay the groundwork for a further tightening in October.

Lower Treasury yields gave the Japanese yen another boost against the dollar, which fell 0.18% at 140.57.

The euro rose 0.45%, with the prospect of more rate cuts from the European Central Bank keeping a lid on the currency at $1.1200.

Lower bond yields underpinned gold, which rose 0.06% to $2,578.09 an ounce, near an all-time peak of $2,588.81.

Oil prices rose as nearly a fifth of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico remained offline. [O/R]

U.S. crude rose 2.58% to $70.42 a barrel and Brent gained 2.15% on the day to $73.13 per barrel.

(Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Sharon Singleton, William Maclean and Ros Russell)