By Timothy Wiffen, head of Calypso practice and Alistair Milne, product manager, Formicary
Although rare, there does seem to have been a spate of IT problems hitting trading floors in recent years, resulting in suspended trading and trading losses, as reported in the Wall Street Journal.
In April 2014, a technical glitch at CME Group Inc. halted electronic trading in corn and other commodities, and saw the world’s largest futures exchange operator using shouting floor traders to fill orders instead of the computers that have largely replaced them. The problem was rectified after two hours but its impact was widely felt as futures and options trading in 31 different markets ranging from corn to wheat to live cattle to rainfall futures were halted.
More recently, in June 2014, NYSE Liffe said a technical glitch halted trading in billions of euros of futures contracts tied to European money-market rates, leaving some traders frustrated for several hours.
When an exchange is impacted it is a very public affair but every financial institution knows that problems with their internal trading platforms can be just as damaging. Any slowdown in transaction processing – whether it’s over a few minutes or several hours – can have dramatic consequences, particularly as the move towards superfast high volume trading continues at a pace.
Put simply, the quicker a problem can be identified and addressed, the less the financial impact.
It’s vital therefore that IT teams address technical issues, however minor, as soon as possible, before they escalate and go on to potentially impacting business performance.
Ideally, this means being aware of problems the precise moment they occur, not after the event when the causes of the issue may be harder to identify and there’ll be an ever growing number of log files to trawl through.
Easier said than done for many financial IT departments however. Their resources are often already stretched as they try to strike a balance between accommodating evolving regulations such as EMIR or Dodds Frank and addressing traders’unrelenting push for reliability and speed.
This pressure means that even the most diligent systems manager often finds themselves firefighting one problem before moving on to the next. There is little time for any post mortem into why a problem occurred so that the necessary proactive measures can be put in place to avoid a similar instance occurring again.
Monitoring the monitoring
Of course, most firms will have some form of platform monitoring in place, often requiring a sizable team to manage the process it on a daily basis.
While such tools advise when a major problem – such as a complete outage – has occurred, by the time the error message has eventually reached the team or individual who can address it, more often than not, the damage has already been done and the business impacted. This puts the IT team on the back foot once again as they strive to investigate what’s happened and pull in the appropriate technical experts to address the problem.
Instead, having an early warning trigger that can spot minor issues as they build up can keep systems managers one step ahead of a potential problem before it becomes a reality.
Generic vs Bespoke
Just as trading platforms such as Calypso, Murex, Misys Summit FT or Front Arena become more sophisticated, so too are the tools required to manage them for optimum performance.
It’s only by having a deep visibility into the inner workings of a platform that a systems manager stands a chance of being able to identify a higher number of technical glitches. For example, if a system has stopped processing trades, a system manager would want to know when exactly the problem happened and what else is or isn’t working elsewhere in order to help pinpoint the root of the problem and stop a domino effect of downtime occurring.
One option is to have a number of different generic systems in place to cover, for example, log processing, machine and system monitoring. Although supported with a strong cross industry user base, albeit from beyond the financial services space, seeing a bigger integrated picture can be a challenge.
Investigating problems using out of the box monitoring systems can be a considerable effort however as data from disparate systems and the platforms themselves need to be manually correlated to identify the cause of a problem.As such, many firms underestimate the effort and the associated time needed to manage issues, and in turn, are shocked when they calculate the total cost of ownership for a platform.
Alternatively, bespoke, platform specific monitoring tools can be designed specifically to infiltrate the intricate aspects of a trading system and provide a single, cohesive overview of activity.
They can passively monitor platform performance on a continual basis and automatically notify the support team should a problem arise. This proactivity can even go a stage further, with different alerts being directed to appropriate teams or individuals for even faster response.
By knowing the domain space well, there is even a potential for such tools to include an element of intelligence, enabling them to not only predict when a problem is potentially pending but suggest what could have caused it.
Additionally, automating platform monitoring in this way can free up those individuals who were previously tasked investigation, enabling them to be redirected to more proactive activities.
Fit for the future
Having great visibility into how a platform is being used can support the broader business beyond trouble shooting, such as providing data on system use and capacity planning for business expansion. For example, assessing how the number of users logging on may have increased over time or how database use has grown can help with support IT infrastructure investment decisions.
As the reliance on technology and the number of people accessing systems within an organisation continues to expand, the pressure facing IT teams is set to get more intense, particularly as greater interaction and more complex systems bring with them an increased risk of things going wrong.
Being able to predict when a platform is at risk and keeping downtime to a minimum will ultimately create time to focus on running the business, embark on innovative initiatives and move not just the IT department but the entire business forward.
About the authors:
This article is written by Timothy Wiffen and Alistair Milne of Formicary Ltd, an IT consultancy specialising in system integration for the financial services sector. Formicary is a Calypso Business & Service Partner, Murex Business Partner and LCH.CLearnetSwapClear CCP² Certified Partner. Formicary has developed CalMon, a bespoke system monitoring tool for Calypso which centrally monitors the trading platform environments and proactively respond to issues with real-time assessment, helping to reduce system failure and system downtime.
How has the online trading landscape changed in 2020?
By Dáire Ferguson, CEO, AvaTrade
This year has been all about change following the outbreak of coronavirus and the subsequent global economic downturn which has impacted nearly every aspect of personal and business life. The online trading world has been no exception to this change as volatility in the financial markets has soared.
Although the global markets have been on a rollercoaster for some time with various geopolitical tensions, the market swings that we have witnessed since March have undoubtedly been unlike anything seen before. While these are indeed challenging times, for the online trading community, the increased volatility has proven tempting for those looking to profit handsomely.
However, with the opportunity to make greater profits also comes the possibility to make a loss, so how has 2020 changed the online trading landscape and how can retail investors stay safe?
Interest rates offered by banks and other traditional forms of consumer investments have been uninspiring for some time, but with the current economic frailty, the Bank of England cut interest rates to an all-time low. This has left many people in search of more exciting and rewarding ways to grow their savings which is indeed something online trading can provide.
When the pandemic hit earlier this year, it was widely reported that user numbers for online trading rocketed due to disappointing savings rates but also because the enforced lockdown gave more people the time to learn a new skill and educate themselves on online trading.
A volatile market certainly offers great scope for profit and new sources of revenue for those that are savvy enough to put their convictions to the test. However, where people stand the chance to profit greatly from market volatility, there is also the possibility to make a loss, particularly for those that are new to online trading or who are still developing their understanding of the market.
The sharp rise in online trading over lockdown paired with this year’s unpredictable global economy has led to some financial losses, but with a number of risk management tools now available this does not necessarily have to be the case.
Protect your assets
Although not yet widely available across the retail market, risk management tools are slowly becoming more prevalent and being offered by online traders as an extra layer of security for those seeking to trade in riskier climates.
There are a range of options available for traders, but amongst the common tools are “take profit” orders in conjunction with “stop loss” orders. A take profit order is a type of limit order that specifies the exact price for traders to close out an open position for a profit, and if the price of the security does not reach the limit price, the take profit order will not be fulfilled. A stop loss order can limit the trader’s loss on a security position by buying or selling a stock when it reaches a certain price.
Take profit and stop loss orders are good for mitigating risk, but for those that are new to the game or who would prefer extra support, there are even some risk management tools, such as AvaProtect, that provide total protection against loss for a defined period. This means that if the market moves in the wrong direction than originally anticipated, traders can recoup their losses, minus the cost of taking out the protection.
Not a day has gone by this year without the news prompting a change in the financial markets. Until a cure for the coronavirus is discovered, we are unlikely to return to ‘normal’ and the global markets will continue to remain highly volatile. In addition, later this year we will witness one of the most critical US presidential elections in history and the UK’s transition period for Brexit will come to an end. The outcome of these events may well trigger further volatility.
Of course, this may also encourage more people to dip their toes into online trading for a chance to profit. As more people take an interest and sign up to online trading platforms, providers will certainly look to increase or improve the risk management tools on offer to try and keep new users on board, and this could spell a new era for the online trading world.
By Paddy Osborn, Academic Dean, London Academy of Trading
Whether you’re negotiating a business deal, playing a sport or trading financial markets, it’s vital that you have a plan. Top golfers will have a strategy to get around the course in the fewest number of shots possible, and without this plan, their score will undoubtedly be worse. It’s the same with trading. You can’t just open a trading account and trade off hunches and hopes. You need to create a structured and robust plan of attack. This will not only improve your profitability, but will also significantly reduce your stress levels during the decision-making process.
In my opinion, there are four stages to any trading strategy.
S – Set-up
T – Trigger
E – Execution
M – Management
Good trading performance STEMs from a structured trading process, so you should have one or more specific rules for each stage of this process.
Before executing any trades, you need to decide on your criteria for making your trading decisions. Should you base your trades off fundamental analysis, or maybe political news or macroeconomic data? If so, then you need to understand these subjects and how markets react to specific news events.
Alternatively, of course, there’s technical analysis, whereby you base your decisions off charts and previous price action, but again, you need a set of specific rules to enable you to trade with a consistent strategy. Many traders combine both fundamental and technical analysis to initiate their positions, which, I believe, has merit.
What needs to happen for you to say “Ah, this looks interesting! Here’s a potential trade.”? It may be a news event, a major macro data announcement (such as interest rates, employment data or inflation), or a chart level breakout. The key ingredient throughout is to fix specific and measurable rules (not rough guidelines that can be over-ridden on a whim with an emotional decision). For me, I may take a view on the potential direction of an asset (i.e. whether to be long or short) through fundamental analysis, but the actual execution of the trade is always technical, based off a very specific set of rules.
To take a simple example, let’s assume an asset has been trending higher, but has stopped at a certain price, let’s say 150. The chart is telling us that, although buyers are in long-term control, sellers are dominant at 150, willing to sell each time the price touches this level. However, the uptrend may still be in place, since each time the price pulls back from the 150 level, the selling is weaker and the price makes a higher short-term low. This clearly suggests that upward pressure remains, and there’s potential to profit from the uptrend if the price breaks higher.
Once you’ve found a potential new trade set-up, the next step is to decide when to pull the trigger on the trade. However, there are two steps to this process… finger on trigger, then pull the trigger to execute.
Continuing the example above, the trigger would be to buy if the price breaks above the resistance level at 150. This would indicate that the sellers at 150 have been exhausted, and the buyers have re-established control of the uptrend. Also, it is often the case that after pause in a trend such as this, the pent-up buying returns and the price surges higher. So the trigger for this trade is a breakout above 150.
We have a finger on the trigger, but now we need to decide when to squeeze it. What if the price touches 150.10 for 10 seconds only? Has our resistance level broken sufficiently to execute the trade? I’d say not, so you need to set rules to define exactly how far the price needs to break above 150 – or for how long it needs to stay above 150 – for you to execute the trade. You’re basically looking for sufficient evidence that the uptrend is continuing. Of course, the higher the price goes (or the longer it stays above 150), the more confident you can be that the breakout is valid, but the higher price you will need to pay. There’s no perfect solution to this decision, and it depends on many things, such as the amount of other supporting evidence that you have, your levels of aggression, and so on. The critical point here is to fix a set of specific rules and stick to those rules every time.
Good trade management can save a bad trade, while poor trade management can turn an excellent trade entry into a loser. I could talk for days about in-trade management, since there are many different methods you can use, but the essential ingredient for every trade is a stop loss. This is an order to exit your position for a loss if the market doesn’t perform as expected. By setting a stop loss, you can fix your maximum risk on a trade, which is essential to preserving your capital and managing your overall risk limits. Some traders set their stop loss and target levels and let the trade run to its conclusion, while others manage their trades more actively, trailing stop losses, taking interim profits, or even adding to winning positions. No matter how you decide to manage each trade, it must be the same every time, following a structured and robust process.
The final step in the process is to review every trade to see if you can learn anything, particularly from your losing trades. Are you sticking to your trading rules? Could you have done better? Should you have done the trade in the first place? Only by doing these reviews will you discover any patterns of errors in your trading, and hence be able to put them right. In this way, it’s possible to monitor the success of your strategy. If your trades are random and emotional, with lots of manual intervention, then there’s no fixed process for you to review. You also need to be honest with yourself, and face up to your bad decisions in order to learn from them.
In this way, using a structured and robust trading strategy, you’ll be able to develop your trading skills – and your profits – without the stress of a more random approach.
Economic recovery likely to prove a ‘stuttering’ affair
By Rupert Thompson, Chief Investment Officer at Kingswood
Equity markets continued their upward trend last week, with global equities gaining 1.2% in local currency terms. Beneath the surface, however, the recovery has been a choppy affair of late. China and the technology sector, the big outperformers year-to-date, retreated last week whereas the UK and Europe, the laggards so far this year, led the gains.
As for US equities, they have re-tested, but so far failed to break above, their post-Covid high in early June and their end-2019 level. The recent choppiness of markets is not that surprising given they are being buffeted by a whole series of conflicting forces.
Developments regarding Covid-19 as ever remain absolutely critical and it is a mixture of bad and good news at the moment. There have been reports of encouraging early trial results for a new treatment and potential vaccine but infection rates continue to climb in the US. Reopening has now been halted or reversed in states accounting for 80% of the population.
We are a long way away from a complete lockdown being re-imposed and these moves are not expected to throw the economy back into reverse. But they do emphasise that the economic recovery, not only in the US but also elsewhere, is likely to prove a ‘stuttering’ affair.
Indeed, the May GDP numbers in the UK undid some of the optimism which had been building recently. Rather than bouncing 5% m/m in May as had been expected, GDP rose a more meagre 1.8% and remains a massive 24.5% below its pre-Covid level in February.
Even in China, where the recovery is now well underway, there is room for some caution. GDP rose a larger than expected 11.5% q/q in the second quarter and regained all of its decline the previous quarter. However, the bounce back is being led by manufacturing and public sector investment, and the recovery in retail sales is proving much more hesitant.
China is not just a focus of attention at the moment because its economy is leading the global upturn but because of the increasing tensions with Hong Kong, the US and UK. UK telecoms companies have now been banned from using Huawei’s 5G equipment in the future and the US is talking of imposing restrictions on Tik Tok, the Chinese social media platform. While this escalation is not as yet a major problem, it is a potential source of market volatility and another, albeit as yet relatively small, unwelcome drag on the global economy.
Government support will be critical over coming months and longer if the global recovery is to be sustained. This week will be crucial in this respect for Europe and the US. The EU, at the time of writing, is still engaged in a marathon four-day summit, trying to reach an agreement on an economic recovery fund. As is almost always the case, a messy compromise will probably end up being hammered out.
An agreement will be positive but the difficulty in reaching it does highlight the underlying tensions in the EU which have far from gone away with the departure of the UK. Meanwhile in the US, the Democrats and Republicans will this week be engaged in their own battle over extending the government support schemes which would otherwise come to an end this month.
Most of these tensions and uncertainties are not going away any time soon. Markets face a choppy period over the summer and autumn with equities remaining at risk of a correction.
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