Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on October 15, 2025
By America Hernandez
(Reuters) -French oil major TotalEnergies expects to report an increase in third-quarter results as higher upstream production and improving crude refining margins offset lower oil prices, the group said on Wednesday.
"Despite a $10 per barrel drop in oil price year-on-year, the results and cash flow from business segments should increase within a range of 0-5% thanks to accretive hydrocarbon production growth and the improved results of the downstream," it said in a trading update.
The group's shares were up 2.65% at 0849 GMT, but still down 3.37% year-to-date.
Total is under pressure to reduce debt this year after about $3.5 billion in acquisitions in the first half and in July CEO Patrick Pouyanne promised higher income from asset disposals, retail power and gas sales, and stronger refining margins.
Total's gearing ratio should improve by between 0.5 and 1 percentage points compared to the end of the second quarter 2025, when gearing hit 17.9%, the company said.
European refining margins averaged $63.0 per ton in the third quarter, a more than 300% rise from the same period last year, buoyed by higher diesel demand during driving season and reduced supply caused by the European Union's ban on importing fuels made from Russian oil.
Downstream results will rise by between $400 million and $600 million year-on-year as a result.
Jefferies analysts said in an investor note that the increased refining margins were well-ahead of consensus and the highlight of the update.
RBC analysts said the update was positive, particularly the higher cash generation, highlighting Total's resilience after several months of underperformance.
Upstream oil and gas output is expected to rise 4% year-on-year to 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent for the third quarter, above Total's annual guidance.
Integrated LNG results will be down due to planned maintenance at the Australian Ichthys LNG plant. Integrated Power results are expected in line with the second quarter's $574 million, which would be an 18% increase year-on-year.
Brent crude oil prices <LCOc1> averaged $69.1 a barrel during the July-September quarter, down 14% from the same period last year.
That price is expected to fall next year, prompting Total and other majors to trim spending.
Total expects its net investments to be around $3 billion in the third quarter, benefiting from around $500 million in divestments net of acquisitions.
(Reporting by America Hernandez and Alban Kacher in Paris, Mathias de Rozario in Gdansk, editing by Tomasz Janowski and Louise Heavens)
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