Swedish Exports to the US May Plunge by 28% Due to Tariff Threats

Potential Impact of Tariffs on Swedish Exports

STOCKHOLM, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Swedish exports to the United States could fall by as much as 28% if President Donald Trump carries out his threat to impose additional tariffs on Sweden and some industrial sectors could see a decline of 50%, Sweden's Board of Trade said on Tuesday.

Trump has threatened tariffs on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain after they sent small groups of military personnel to Greenland at Copenhagen's request.

Trump has said tariffs will start at 10% on February 1, rising to 25% on June 1, and would continue until a deal is reached for the U.S. to purchase Greenland.

At the current level of tariffs, agreed between the EU and the U.S. last year, exports to the U.S. are expected to fall roughly 6% over the coming three to five years, according to the Board of Trade's estimates. 

Sector-Specific Export Predictions

An additional 10% tariff would see total exports to the U.S. drop around 16%, rising to 28% at the highest tariff level. 

Overall Export Decline Estimates

Some sectors will be hit much worse than others. Iron and steel exports could fall 25% with the current level of tariffs and that could hit 45% if the top tariff level is implemented. Exports of electronics could fall as much as 50%.

The United States accounted for around 9% - or 186.5 billion Swedish crowns ($20.42 billion) - of Swedish exports in 2024. That made it Sweden's third biggest market after Germany and Norway. 

Top exports are motor vehicles, machinery, pharmaceuticals and electronics.

Overall, Swedish exports globally could fall between 0.8% and 1.3% if the tariffs are implemented, the Board of Trade said.

($1 = 9.1319 Swedish crowns)

(Reporting by Simon JohnsonEditing by Keith Weir)