Stocks Rise Slightly as Dollar Weakens Amid Yen Intervention Speculation

Market Overview and Currency Movements

By Sinéad Carew and Iain Withers

U.S. Stock Market Performance

NEW YORK/LONDON Jan 23 (Reuters) - MSCI's global equities index was rising modestly on Friday and benchmark U.S. Treasury yields edged down while the yen gained against the dollar as traders bet that Japanese authorities are close to intervening directly to support the currency.

Currency Fluctuations

The yen suddenly swung from a loss to a gain versus the dollar, suggesting to traders that Japan may have run rate checks with banks - often a signal of readiness to intervene.

Impact of Federal Reserve Decisions

Earlier in the day the Bank of Japan signaled its readiness to continue raising still-low borrowing costs in a politically-charged atmosphere, ahead of a snap election next month. 

After two days of gains, Wall Street equities were making little progress, suggesting a muted ending for a week punctuated by a sell-off then a relief rally linked to U.S. President Donald Trump's withdrawal of tariff threats and ruling out seizing Greenland by force. 

With a busy week ahead, including a Federal Reserve meeting, key economic releases and earnings reports, Gene Goldman, Chief Investment Officer at Cetera Investment Management in El Segundo, California said that investors were taking a breath and "in a wait-and-see approach."

"There's really no big drivers today and markets really benefited the last couple of days from easing geopolitical risks," he said. "Stocks are taking a breather because of anticipation of a really big week."

Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 97% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold rates steady next week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

With disappointing forecasts weighing on Intel shares after its quarterly update late on Thursday, investors were waiting for reports from Microsoft, Meta Platforms and industrial giant Caterpillar among others in the week ahead.  

While global stocks have clawed back much of the ground lost in Tuesday's sell-off, investors are still waiting for details of a deal being negotiated between the U.S. and European leaders regarding Greenland. As a result some big Northern European investors are increasingly wary of the risks of holding U.S. assets.

Investors are also watching for any signs of progress from U.S.-brokered trilateral talks over Ukraine, with its President, Volodymyr Zelenskiy saying on Friday that the vital question of territory in Ukraine's war with Russia would be discussed in Abu Dhabi on Friday and Saturday.

On Wall Street at 11:33 a.m. (1633 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average <.DJI> fell 286.46 points, or 0.57%, to 49,100.07, the S&P 500 <.SPX> rose 5.37 points, or 0.08%, to 6,918.72 and the Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> rose 99.59 points, or 0.43%, to 23,535.61.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe <.MIWD00000PUS> rose 1.93 points, or 0.19%, to 1,037.96.

The pan-European STOXX 600 <.STOXX> index fell 0.21%.

In currencies, the yen was volatile with a sudden spike earlier on speculation of a potential intervention, while the dollar edged lower and was set for its steepest weekly decline since June.

The dollar index <=USD>, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.25% to 98.06.

With the euro <EUR=> up 0.1% at $1.1766, the dollar weakened 0.47% against the Japanese yen <JPY=> to 157.65. Sterling <GBP=> strengthened 0.59% to $1.3577.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday she was watching currency markets closely, but declined to comment on the speculation. 

In Treasuries, the yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> fell 0.6 basis points to 4.245%, down from 4.251% late on Thursday, while the 30-year bond <US30YT=RR> yield  fell 0.6 basis points to 4.8427%.

The 2-year note <US2YT=RR> yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, fell 1.2 basis points to 3.603%, from 3.614% late on Thursday.

In energy markets, oil prices rebounded after Trump renewed threats against Iran, raising concerns of military action that could disrupt crude supplies while there are outages in Kazakhstan. 

U.S. crude rose 2.81% to $61.03 a barrel and Brent rose to $65.82 per barrel, up 2.75% on the day. 

In precious metals markets, silver and gold set new records with silver prices rising above $100 an ounce for the first time and gold hitting another record and en-route to $5,000/oz as investors continued to pile into safe haven assets amid geopolitical turmoil.

Spot gold <XAU=> rose 0.94% to $4,983.11 an ounce. U.S. gold futures <GCc1> rose 0.55% to $4,936.00 an ounce.

Elsewhere in metals, copper <CMCU3> rose 3.08% to $13,148.50 a tonne. Three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange <CMAL3> rose 1.1% to $3,167.50 a tonne. 

(Reporting by Sinéad Carew in New York, Iain Withers in London and Gregor Stuart Hunter in Singapore, additional reporting by Naomi Rovnick; Editing by Jane Merriman, Kirsten Donovansinead.carew@thomsonreuters.com)