Russian officials warn of challenges posed by strong rouble

By Gleb Bryanski and Elena Fabrichnaya

MOSCOW, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble will be stronger than previously expected, which represents a challenge for the economy, with several major export-oriented mega projects potentially suffering losses, top Russian officials said on Tuesday.

The rouble has rallied by over 46% since the start of the year due to the central bank's tight monetary policy and expectations for a peaceful settlement in Ukraine, following the start of U.S.-Russia negotiations in February. 

A strong rouble hits revenues of major Russian commodity firms, which make up the backbone of the country's economy, exporting oil, gas, metals and grains, and also helping to fill the state coffers with their taxes.

Most analysts and businessmen expected the rouble to weaken, arguing that the Russian currency's fair value was around 100 to the U.S. dollar, compared to the current level of 77.5 to the dollar. Such expectations have so far failed to materialise.

Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov told the "Russia Calling" investment conference that due to weak imports and weak capital outflows, the stronger rouble was expected to stay, and companies had no choice but to adjust to it. 

"Strategically, the exchange rate will be stronger than it seemed to us one or two years ago," Reshetnikov said. The government changed its forecast for the average rouble rate in 2026 from 100.2 to the dollar to 92.2 last September. 

LIVE WITH NEW REALITIES

Reshetnikov said that the government's policy of import substitution, which was introduced to counter Western sanctions and replace equipment and machinery previously imported from the West, was also working to strengthen the rouble. 

"We will have to live with these new realities," Reshetnikov added, stressing that several large export-oriented projects under development with support from the government targeted export volumes of up to $70 billion. 

He said that some of these exports would not be profitable at the stronger exchange rate of the rouble and would have to be abandoned. 

Reshetnikov said that several mega projects could be affected such as Sibur's Amur gas and chemicals plant in the Far East, Gazprom's gas processing plant in Ust Luga on the Baltic Sea, and billionaire Alisher Usmanov's Udokan Copper project.

"Some enterprises are expecting that they just need to wait a little longer and by some miracle the exchange rate will weaken. This strategy is no longer working," Reshetnikov said.

Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said that the share of the rouble in payments for Russian exports has reached 57% this year, compared to only 14% in 2021. The rouble's share in payments for imports was 55%, she said.

CRYPTOCURRENCY MINING UNDERMINES FOREIGN CURRENCY DEMAND

The rouble's rate to the dollar is determined through an opaque over-the-counter trade between banks. Speaking to Reuters this week, Andrei Kostin, CEO of Russia's second-largest bank VTB, said the current rate suited neither exporters nor the government.

"Demand for foreign currency has fallen for everyone, even ordinary people have stopped saving in dollars," he said.

President Vladimir Putin's economy aide Maxim Oreshkin said that mining of cryptocurrencies was one of the factors behind the falling demand for foreign currencies since cryptocurrencies could be used to pay for some imports.

He said that several government decisions, limiting imports, such as an increase in scrappage fees for foreign-made cars or a clampdown on gray imports going through the Central Asian states, also played a role.

Oreshkin said that foreign investors were gradually finding ways to invest in high-yielding Russian assets, such as government bonds with yields around 13%, contributing to an inflow of capital, which supported the rouble.

"If the government believes that it needs a weaker rouble for some reason, it needs to carry out an aggressive policy to increase imports. Right now I don't see it from the government," Oreshkin said.

(Additional reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin and Darya Korsunskaya; Editing by Mark Trevelyan/Guy Faulconbridge and Sharon Singleton)