Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on November 4, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 21, 2026
Add as preferred source on GoogleHSBC anticipates OPEC+ will increase oil quotas in mid-2026 to regain market share, despite a forecasted oversupply in early 2026.
(Reuters) -HSBC expects OPEC+ to accelerate oil output quota increases in the second and third quarters of 2026 as the producer group focuses on regaining market share, the bank said on Tuesday.
OPEC+ agreed on Sunday a small oil output increase for December and a pause in increases in the first quarter of next year.
It has raised output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day - or around 2.7% of global supply - since April, but slowed the pace from October amid predictions of an oversupply.
HSBC said that OPEC+'s latest decision signals caution over seasonally weaker demand but does not indicate a shift in strategy.
"Even now that OPEC+ has paused, we remain very sceptical about the group reversing the unwinding and cutting again. We expect it to consider doing (that) only if Brent remains below $55/b for a prolonged period," the bank said.
HSBC now forecasts a 2.7 million barrels per day (mbpd) oversupply in the first quarter of 2026, down from a previous estimate of 3 mbpd, and expects an average oversupply of 2.1 mbpd for the full year, compared with 2.4 mbpd previously.
It said the first-quarter 2026 pause has a slightly positive impact on oil balances, but not enough to prevent a large surplus next year.
(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
OPEC+ is a coalition of oil-producing countries that includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other oil-producing nations. They collaborate to manage oil production levels to influence global oil prices.
An oil output quota is a limit set by oil-producing countries on the amount of oil they can produce. This is done to regulate supply and stabilize or influence oil prices in the global market.
Brent crude oil is a major trading classification of crude oil originating from the North Sea. It serves as a global benchmark for oil prices and is used to price two-thirds of the world's crude oil.
Oversupply in the oil market occurs when the supply of oil exceeds demand. This can lead to falling prices and can affect the profitability of oil-producing companies and countries.
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