Oil Prices Hold Steady as Investors Assess Venezuela and Iran Risks

Market Analysis of Oil Supply Risks

By Florence Tan

Impact of Iranian Protests on Oil Supply

SINGAPORE, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed on Monday as investors eyed potential supply disruptions from OPEC producer Iran amid intensifying protests, although efforts to quickly resume oil exports from Venezuela kept a lid on prices.

Venezuela's Potential Oil Export Resumption

Brent crude futures slipped 5 cents to $63.29 a barrel by 0131 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $59.06 a barrel, down 6 cents.

Oil Companies' Preparations for Venezuelan Exports

Both contracts rose more than 3% last week to clinch their biggest weekly rise since October as Iran's clerical establishment intensified its crackdown on the biggest demonstrations since 2022.

Trafigura's Shipping Plans

While a premium has formed in oil prices in recent days, the market is still underestimating the geopolitical risk from a wider Iran conflict that may impact oil shipments at the Strait of Hormuz, Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.

"The market is saying show me the disruption to supply before materially responding," he added.

The civil unrest in Iran has killed more than 500 people, a rights group said on Sunday.

"There have also been calls for workers in the oil industry to down tools amid the protests," ANZ analysts led by Daniel Hynes said in a note.

"The situation puts at least 1.9 million barrels per day of oil exports at risk of disruption," they added.

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene if force is used on protesters.

The president is expected to meet senior advisers on Tuesday to discuss options for Iran, a U.S. official told Reuters on Sunday.

Still, Venezuela is expected to resume oil exports soon following the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro as Trump said last week the government in Caracas is set to turn over as much as 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States.

That has set off a race among oil companies to find tankers and assemble operations to ship the crude safely from vessels and dilapidated Venezuelan ports, four sources familiar with the operations said.

Trafigura said in a meeting with the White House on Friday that its first vessel should load in the next week.

(Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Lincoln Feast.)