Morning Bid: Dollar Jolted by Iowa Surprise

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.

The early action Monday has been in currencies as the dollar took a knock from a new poll in Iowa showing Democratic presidential contender Kamala Harris leading Republican Donald Trump. That was enough to see the dollar down 0.9% on the yen and 0.6% on the euro, while the trade-sensitive Aussie bounced 0.8%.

Analysts tend to assume Trump’s policies on immigration, tariffs and tax cuts would put a lot more upward pressure on the U.S. dollar and yields, than a Harris victory.

Of particular note was the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll which surprised everyone by showing Harris up 3 points on Trump in the state, a major shift from a few weeks ago. This poll has a very good track record and is considered a bellwether for votes across the swing states.

“Since last week, Harris is seeing a boost in the polls, highlighted by the Selzer Poll of Iowa where some are using as a proxy for performance among the Blue Wall battleground states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin),” JPMorgan said in a note.

Betting site PredictIT showed Harris at 53 cents to Trump on 51 cents – what investors are willing to wager for a chance to win $1 – compared to 42 cents to 61 cents just a week ago.

The average of opinion polls is still too close to call and it’s quite possible the result of the vote may not be known on Wednesday. In 2020, for instance, Pennsylvania was not called until the Saturday after the election. There could also be court challenges to results which might drag on for weeks.

Markets assume the Federal Reserve will go ahead and cut rates on Thursday no matter the outcome, with futures implying a 98% chance of 25 basis points. They are also pricing an 80% probability of another quarter point in December, though that could easily change depending on who becomes president-elect.

The Bank of England is also expected to cut by a quarter point on Thursday, while the Riksbank is seen easing by 50 basis points. Norges Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are seen on hold this week.

The other market mover on Monday was oil, which bounced 1.4% or so after OPEC+ said on Sunday it would delay a planned December output hike by one month. This was the second time it has extended a 2.2 million bpd cut and only goes to show how worried they are about global demand.

Asia in particular has been weak with crude imports in the first 10 months of the year down 200,000 bpd from the same period in 2023, according to LSEG data.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

– Participation by ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone in Eurogroup meeting

– ECB members appearing include Elizabeth McCaul, Frank Elderson, Christodoulos Patsalides and Claudia Buch

– Final EZ manufacturing PMIs for October

– U.S. durable goods, factory orders for September

(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)