- Economic growth in the US is accelerating
- Reason will return to the White House on trade tariffs
- Homebuilding industry should continue to prosper
- The entrepreneurial spirit in America remains alive and well
Nick Ford, Fund Manager of the LF Miton US Opportunities Fund comments:
“We remain extremely optimistic on the prospects of continued growth for the world’s largest economy. Our recent company meetings found management teams broadly optimistic and upbeat across a wide cross section of industries. These views are inconsistent with the notion of any impending slowdown or recession. If anything, US corporations have suggested that economic growth is actually accelerating.
“Trump’s proposed tariffs have gained a lot of investor attention but we believe reason will eventually return to the White House, as it becomes clear that the costs of a trade war will outweigh the benefits. Trump wants to maintain his image as a champion of blue collar workers and tariff talk is all about placating his supporters. It’s important to Trump to preserve his legacy of stronger economic growth and a rising equity market. So his goal is likely to be narrow tariffs with limited economic downside. Rising unemployment and falling markets are not conducive to his goal of ‘making America great again’. Any tariffs are likely to be narrow in impact (now that Canada and Mexico are excluded) with limited economic impact. As this becomes clear we should start to see equity markets recover over the coming weeks.
“Looking at the broader US picture we see a healthy housing sector. This industry remains forefront in investors’ minds given the subprime lending crisis prompted the last economic downturn. Leading player Toll Brothers has been able to raise the average price of its homes for sale by 6.8% from 12 months ago with demand driven by jobs growth, wage increases and new buying interest from millennials. With household net worth at record highs and the amount spent by consumers to service their debt, as a percentage of disposable income, near historic lows, homebuilders should continue to prosper.
“Elsewhere, companies in sectors where the outlooks are less tied to the economy continue to benefit from tremendous innovation, suggesting the entrepreneurial spirit in America remains alive and well. With corporate profits on the rise, more money can be allocated to research and development to drive exciting and revolutionary new products and services. In particular, many smaller companies look well-positioned now they have ready access to financing from a reinvigorated banking sector. Examples within healthcare include Nuance and Vocera Communications which are both using speech recognition coupled with artificial intelligence to slash the bureaucracy associated with creating and retrieving patient records. This allows instant interaction between medical professionals to determine optimal treatment plans.
“We remain confident that positive growth will only continue to accelerate across a variety of sectors.”
What finding Alice has taught us about the pitfalls of no will
ITV’s latest television drama Finding Alice has been a necessary diversion during these endless winter weeks of lockdown, but it has also provided a useful warning about the far-reaching consequences of a person’s sudden death, particularly when a will has not been put in place.
Following the story of Alice, played by Keeley Hawes, who finds herself in difficulty when her partner of 20-years Harry dies suddenly, the drama brings into sharp focus issues around inheritance tax, intestacy rules and rights for unmarried couples.
Lawyers are hoping the circumstances depicted on the programme will act as a wake-up call to the 50% of UK adults who do not have a will.
Carol Cummins, Private Wealth Team Leader, with national firm Clarke Willmott LLP, said: “Finding Alice is a really useful case study in what not to do if you wish to ensure your family is taken care of following your death.
“Harry and Alice were unmarried and Harry had not made a will which means he died intestate. As a result of this, Alice will inherit nothing as of right, except any assets they might have owned in joint names. In fact, the couple’s daughter, Charlotte, along with a secret son George are entitled to their father’s estate under the intestacy rules. Any assets they do receive are potentially liable to inheritance tax.
“Then there’s the matter of the brand new ‘smart’ house the couple have just moved into. Alice, expects to inherit the property but discovers that in order to protect his assets against his many creditors, Harry gave the
house to his parents just before his death.
“This is a transfer for inheritance tax purposes and the house clearly exceeds the value of the nil rate band which can be given away without a tax bill (£325,000 currently). As the recipients of the gift, Harry’s poor parents face a large IHT liability.
“It seems that Harry did not take any advice before making the gift because a reducing term insurance policy held in trust for his parents could have provided them with the money to pay the tax bill if Harry died within seven years of the gift.
“In not taking the short amount of time it requires to write a will, Harry has negatively impacted on his partner, children and parents – the very people he would have wished to take care of.”
The programme also shows that Harry has left behind a raft of debts, many connected with his building company. This raises a whole host of issues for the administration of the estate. However, Alice will not be liable for any of Harry’s debts and nor would she be if they were married. If the business is a limited liability company, and it has incurred debts it cannot pay, Harry’s estate will not be liable for these unless Harry had given a
personal guarantee in his capacity as a shareholder.
So what advice would Carol have for Alice, if she were a client?
“Alice’s situation is certainly a complicated one and she should definitely be taking the advice of a good lawyer.
“A deed of variation within two years of Harry’s death could, if George and Charlotte agree, re-direct their entitlement to Alice (providing both children are over the age of 18), but inheritance tax would still be payable even if the estate is re-directed to Alice because Alice and Harry were not married.
“It might therefore be advisable to put some of the assets into trust for Alice and the children. This would not reduce the tax due immediately but could help to reduce the tax bill when Alice eventually dies as the assets in trust would not be part of her estate.
“All of this could have been avoided by having a will in place. Harry could have protected his parents by including a provision that his estate should pay the tax on any failed gift and the bill should not fall on his parents.
Instead, Harry’s parents are trying to sell the property to raise funds to pay the tax.
“Once Harry’s parents have paid off the tax, they intend to give the balance of the sale proceeds to Alice. They should consider their own inheritance tax position on this gift, especially as they are not young and have a daughter who may not be happy to find that her parents’ nil rate bands had all been used in a gift to Alice.”
Clarke Willmott has recently launched a new campaign to encourage people to pledge that they will make a will this year. The #GoodWill campaign asks people to take steps to safeguard their family’s future wealth.
The firm is aiming to assist people looking into making a will by developing a free, online ‘Which Will?’ tool that prompts the user to think about what is important to them when making a will and recommends
which wil best meets their needs.
Clarke Willmott is a national law firm with offices in Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, London, Manchester, Southampton and Taunton.
Estate planning for wealthy celebrities or UHNWIs
By Sean Sheridan, Client Director, ZEDRA Isle of Man
Estate planning often gets pushed aside…sometimes with disastrous knock-on effects for a family. With today’s evolving regulatory environment, future planning can be challenging and often daunting.
Despite inevitable obstacles, there are ways to minimise the burden to enable even celebrities to have future generations enjoying the benefits of their wealth. In this article we explore why estate planning gets overlooked, and why it’s so important to protect prosperity and interests.
It’s easier to put off estate planning than you’d think – even for people like celebrities or UHNWIs who have earned significant wealth. For example, it’s thought that the great Diego Maradona passed away without leaving a Will or other plans for his assets, despite recent years of ill health. There were already reports of a contested estate just weeks after his funeral. Michael Jackson, Prince, James Gandolfini and Philip Seymore Hoffmann all passed away with various issues with their estates, despite having amassed fortunes.
It’s not disorganisation or a lack of desire that stops people planning their estate. In fact, often the last thing people want is to leave family or loved ones having to deal with probate and complex legal affairs at an already difficult time. Many people simply put off estate planning, thinking they will have time later…whenever that is. Alternatively, they may not comprehend how challenging it can be to untangle an intricate estate, and what legal rules there are that surround how an estate will automatically be divided amongst heirs and spouses if forced heirship laws apply. Equally, many people may not know that some loved ones may not get any assets or be looked after if provisions aren’t made in advance.
For UHNWI a properly planned estate can also mean more privacy for family at a challenging time. Many HNWI will choose – along with advisors – a structure that will allow for maximum confidentiality and will keep the details of the estate and any beneficiaries private. Information about beneficiaries of an estate becoming public can also make them a target for press or other unwanted attention. As structures which allow for both discretion and succession planning, trusts can be very popular for this reason.
Trusts also allow for settlors to stipulate the conditions under which beneficiaries may have access to or be given money from a trust.
Trusts allow the settlor the ability to lay out one or more conditions. For example, a settlor could put aside assets in trust to support beneficiaries but not make all the assets available to them at once. This might be to support good governance or simply to protect beneficiaries from some of the hazards associated with wealth, as perceived by the settlor.
Practically, this means a settlor and their advisors might look at different conditions for a trust’s assets. For example, beneficiaries might only receive a lump sum every 10 years. Alternatively, they might get a monthly pay-out, similar to a salary. The settlor might wish that funds are paid out to beneficiaries for the sole purpose of paying for their college education or to purchase a property.
Corporate trustees like ZEDRA ensure that the settlor’s wishes are met, and the assets of the trusts are used in the way the settlor would like and as laid out in the trust deed.
Planning ahead with advisors is vital – especially for anyone with a complex assets and interests that span various geographies may be complex in terms of nature, like IP rights.
Expert advice that’s tailored around an individual’s personal situation is a must, so thinking ahead is crucial. It’s never too early to make sure you’re planning your estate and making sure loved ones or important causes will be looked after when you’re gone.
Dollar edges lower as investors favor higher-risk currencies
By Stephen Culp
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The dollar lost ground on Friday as market participants favored currencies associated with risk-on sentiment over the safe-haven greenback.
Risk appetite was stoked by better-than-expected economic data and expectations that U.S. President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package will come to fruition.
“The dollar’s down against other currencies but not by a whole lot,” said Oliver Pursche, president of Bronson Meadows Capital Management in Fairfield, Connecticut. “I expect the dollar to be where it is now at the end of the year, and the main reason for that is while I see some signs of improvement in the economy, monetary policy is going to stay where it is.”
“I don’t think the dollar is underpriced or overpriced,” Pursche added.
For the week, the dollar slid about 0.2% against a basket of world currencies, the euro was essentially flat, and the yen lost more than 0.5%. But the British pound advanced more than 1.1% against the dollar, its best week since mid-December.
Bitcoin continues soar to record highs. The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last up 6.6% at $54,961.67, hitting $1 trillion in market capitalization.
Its smaller rival, ethereum, was last up 0.7% at $1,953.28.
The digital currencies have gained about 89% and 1,420%, respectively, year to date, leading some analysts to warn of a speculative bubble.
“One concern I’ve always had (about cryptocurrencies) is how susceptible they are to manipulation,” Pursche said. “But they’re going to continue to gain legitimacy.”
“While it’s great that Tesla made an investment in bitcoin, I’m more intrigued by Blackrock and other major investment firms taking a hard look at cryptocurrencies as a viable investment.”
The Australian dollar, which is closely linked to commodity prices and the outlook for global growth, was last up 1.21% at $0.7863, touching its highest since March 2018.
The New Zealand dollar also gained, closing in on a more than two-year high, and the Canadian dollar advanced as well.
Sterling, which often benefits from increased risk appetite, rose to an almost three-year high amid Britain’s aggressive vaccination program. It had last gained 0.27% to $1.40.
The euro showed little reaction to a slowdown in factory activity indicated by purchasing manager index data, rising 0.21% to $1.2116.
The yen, gained ground against the dollar and was last at 105.495, creeping above its 200-day moving average for the first time in three days.
(Reporting by Stephen Culp, additonal reporting by Tommy Wilkes; editing by Jonathan Oatis)
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