Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on October 10, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 21, 2026
Goldman Sachs predicts copper prices to remain between $10,000-$11,000 per ton in 2026/2027, influenced by market surplus and demand dynamics.
(Reuters) -Copper prices are expected to stay in a range of $10,000-$11,000 per metric ton in 2026/2027 due to a market surplus, though the long-term outlook remains positive, Goldman Sachs said in a note on Friday.
The bank noted three key factors that could limit copper's upside: First: Chinese buyers could reduce purchases if prices exceed $11,000, as they did in the second quarter of 2024. Second: excess U.S. inventory could quickly rebalance the market if London Metals Exchange spreads tighten. Third: data centre-related demand has likely been overstated.
Copper prices fell on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was calculating a massive increase in tariffs on Chinese imports, stoking fears the trade war between the world's two largest economies could escalate. [MET/L]
In the nickel market, Goldman noted that Indonesian producer margins need to decline further to limit supply growth and reverse the nagging market surplus. It forecast a 6% decline in nickel prices to $14,500 per metric ton by December 2026.
The note added that Goldman expects an aluminium market surplus as Indonesian supply ramps up from mid-2026. The aluminium price was seen at $2,350/t in the fourth quarter of 2026, and was forecast to not return to current levels until 2030.
China is expected to shift from being a zinc net importer to a net exporter in 2026 due to rising domestic production, Goldman said.
"We see rising Chinese domestic production moving the country from deficit into surplus, while the ex-China market moves to deficit. In order to balance the global market, Chinese producers need to be incentivized to export," it noted.
In the cobalt market, new export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which supplies 70% of global cobalt, are likely to create a market deficit in 2026. This will support prices as supply tightens, according to the note.
Goldman also expects lithium prices to stay low-for-longer through 2026, averaging $8,900 a metric ton, as persistent oversupply keeps the market in surplus.
(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Nia Williams and David Gregorio)
Copper is a reddish-brown metal known for its high electrical and thermal conductivity. It is widely used in electrical wiring, plumbing, and various industrial applications.
A market surplus occurs when the supply of a commodity exceeds its demand, leading to a decrease in prices. This can happen due to overproduction or decreased consumer interest.
The London Metals Exchange (LME) is a global marketplace for trading base metals. It provides a platform for price discovery and risk management for metal producers and consumers.
Cobalt is a hard, lustrous metal used in batteries, alloys, and as a catalyst in chemical processes. It is essential for rechargeable batteries in electric vehicles.
Lithium is a soft, silvery-white metal that is highly reactive and conductive. It is primarily used in rechargeable batteries for mobile phones, laptops, and electric vehicles.
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