Copper to hold gains in 2026 as mine disruptions fuel deficit: Reuters poll

By Eric Onstad and Noel John

LONDON/BENGALURU (Reuters) -Analysts have hiked their price forecasts for copper next year after a series of mine disruptions fuelled worries about shortages and market deficits, a Reuters poll shows..

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange hit its strongest in more than 16 months earlier in October after news about problems in mines in Indonesia, Congo and Chile.

Copper, used in power and construction and often seen as a barometer of the global economy, has gained 25% so far this year.

The LME cash copper contract should average $10,500 per metric ton in 2026, a median forecast of 30 analysts showed, up 7.2% from the forecast in the previous poll in July of $9,796.

"We expect copper to hold onto its recent gains and sustain these into 2026 and beyond. Recent developments now suggest the refined copper market will begin to tighten earlier than we previously forecast," said Matthew Sherwood at EIU. 

The world's second-biggest copper mine, Grasberg in Indonesia, suspended operations last month after mud flows flooded the site, killing seven workers.    

Incidents like that spurred a flip in analysts' consensus forecast to a market deficit of 124,000 tons in 2025 from a surplus of 40,000 tons in the previous poll. 

They expect the deficit to deepen in 2026 to 150,000 tons.

CHINA CAP ON ALUMINIUM OUTPUT

The benchmark price of aluminium, which is used for transport, construction and packaging, has gained 14% so far this year.

This has partly been driven by concern about supply since output in top producer China is very close to a government-imposed cap of 45 million tons a year.  

"On the cost and supply front, a number of dynamics are likely to support aluminium prices in the medium to longer term," said Sudakshina Unnikrishnan at Standard Chartered.

"The demand outlook remains positive, especially demand from the renewable energy sector."

LME cash aluminium is expected to average $2,679 a ton in 2026, up 3% from the forecast in the previous poll.

Analysts trimmed their market balance surplus consensus in 2026 to 250,000 tons from 281,500 tons in the previous poll.

RISING ZINC MINE SUPPLY

LME inventories of zinc, mainly used to galvanise steel, have slid by 85% so far this year, but benchmark prices are largely flat over the same period as analysts do not see the low stocks as representative of the wider global market.

"We expect improving mine supply as new mines like Kipushi ramp up, which could keep a lid on prices," said Nana Adwoa Sereboo at RBC.

Analysts expect LME cash zinc to average $2,838 a ton in 2026, up 2.2% from the previous poll forecast.

They have increased their consensus for a global zinc surplus in 2026 to 239,000 tons from 201,500 previously.

(Reporting by Eric Onstad. Editing by Mark Potter)