Japan's Election Tests PM Takaichi Amid Heavy Snowfall Impacting Voter Turnout

Impact of Weather on Election Turnout

TOKYO, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Japanese voters were casting ballots on Sunday in an election expected to hand Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi a resounding win, although record snowfall in parts of the country could keep many voters at home.

The conservative coalition of Takaichi, the nation's first female leader, could win more than 300 of the 465 seats in the lower house of parliament, according to multiple opinion polls, a large gain from the 233 it is defending.

If the coalition of Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party with the Japan Innovation Party, known as Ishin, wins 310 seats, it would be able to override the opposition-controlled upper chamber.

Takaichi's Popularity and Policies

She has vowed to step down if the coalition loses its majority.

Voter Demographics and Trends

TAKAICHI RIDES 'SANAKATSU' WAVE AMONG YOUNG VOTERS

Coalition Dynamics and Political Implications

Takaichi, 64, who became prime minister in October after being selected LDP leader, sought a mandate from voters in a rare winter election as she rides a wave of popularity.

With a straight-talking style and an image as a hard worker that have won her support, especially with younger voters, Takaichi has accelerated military spending to counter China, which she sparked a diplomatic row with, and pushed economic stimulus and tax cuts that have rattled financial markets.

"If Takaichi wins big, she will have more political room to follow through on key commitments, including on consumption tax" cuts, said Seiji Inada, managing director at FGS Global, a strategic advisory consultancy. "Markets could react in the following days, and the yen could come under renewed pressure."

She has promised to suspend the 8% sales tax on food for two years to help households cope with rising prices, partly driven by the yen's sharp fall.

Takaichi has generated a social media-led wave, mostly among voters, of a Sanae-mania called "sanakatsu" for products she uses, such as her handbag and the pink pen she scribbles notes with in parliament.

A recent opinion poll found voters under 30 favouring her by more than 90%. That young cohort, however, is less likely to vote than the older generations that have long been the bedrock of LDP support.

On Thursday, Takaichi received the endorsement of U.S. President Donald Trump, a signal that may appeal to right-leaning voters but could also put off some moderates.

WHITEOUT COULD BOOST ORGANISED VOTING BLOCS

With up to 70 cm (28 inches) of snow forecast in northern and eastern regions on Sunday, some voters will have to battle blizzards to pass their verdict on her administration. It is only the third postwar election held in February, with elections typically called during milder months.

In Nagaoka in the rural northern prefecture of Niigata, where snow was piled more than 1 metre (3 feet) high along the roadsides on Saturday, campaigners urged people to vote early to avoid expected snow storms.

"It's bad enough here in the towns, but in the mountains there's twice as much snow. It's hard just to leave the house," said Takehiko Igarashi, a volunteer for the Japanese Communist Party, which he said was calling up supporters and offering to drive them to polling stations.

Turnout in recent lower house elections has hovered around the mid-50% range. Any slump on Sunday could amplify the influence of organised voting blocs.

One of those is Komeito, which last year quit its coalition with the LDP and has merged into a centrist group with the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan. Komeito has close ties to the lay-Buddhist Soka Gakkai group, which claims at least 8 million members nationwide.

Voters will pick lawmakers in 289 single-seat constituencies, with the rest decided by proportional-representation votes for parties. Polls close at 8 p.m. (1100 GMT), when broadcasters are expected to issue projections based on their exit polls.

(Reporting by Tim Kelly, Joseph Campbell and John Geddie; Editing by William Mallard)