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Hermes: Turkey’s election: a case for cautious optimism?

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Hermes: Turkey’s election: a case for cautious optimism?

Turkish parliamentary and presidential elections will take place this Sunday amid a febrile political and economic climate. In recent months, the country has been grappling with double-digit inflation, a pressured lira and fears over the independence of its central bank. As voters prepare to go to the polls, Andrey Kuznetsov, Portfolio Manager at Hermes Investment Management, assesses the investment landscape in Turkey.

 Turkey is no stranger to political instability. On Sunday, Turks will go to the polls for the sixth time in four years, and for the second time under emergency law after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan brought forward the election by 18 months[1]. The move, Erdogan said, reflects the country’s need to “overcome uncertainty”[2], but critics argue he wants to push through the vote before the country’s economic woes get materially worse.

While Erogan looks like he will win the presidential race, the parliamentary election, looks too close to call. There is a risk that Erdogan’s ruling AK Party and the nationalist MHP party will not retain a parliamentary majority after Sunday’s vote.

Economic concerns worry voters

Voters have already been spooked by the country’s flailing economy: the lira has depreciated by about 25% against the US dollar so far this year, hurt by domestic politics and global monetary policy. A series of tirades by Erdogan against high interest rates have sparked concerns about central bank independence and inflation is stuck in double-digit territory.

First-quarter economic growth was strong at 7.4%. However, it is widely expected that the Turkish economy will have slowed sharply in the second quarter due to recent lira weakness and a trio of interest-rate hikes totalling 500 basis points (bps) since April.

Opportunities

At present, there is a significant premium priced in to Turkish sovereign bonds. For example, the 6% Turkish sovereign bond maturing in 2027 is trading 450bps over US Treasuries, and it has widened by about 200bps so far this year. This has created opportunities for investors to gain exposure to companies with robust levers that can withstand the current macro environment, such as exporters and well-capitalised, domestically focused businesses. One such example is current holding Turk Telekom.

 Figure 1: The spread of Turkish sovereign bonds over US Treasuries has widened this year

Source: Bloomberg as at 20 June 2018

Source: Bloomberg as at 20 June 2018

Turk Telekom: emitting good signals?

The incumbent integrated telecommunications giant Turk Telekom provides local, national, international and mobile telecommunication services, internet products and services.

In the first quarter, Turk Telekom reported strong earnings, with revenue aligned with inflation. It also generated decent subscriber growth during this period. Consolidated revenues increased 8.8% year-on-year to 4.7bn lira, while EBITDA grew by 29% year-on-year to 2bn lira[3].

Despite a strong start to the year, the recent lira weakness will have an impact on the company’s credit profile. Nevertheless, there are several mitigating factors. Turk Telekom’s ability to partly pass on inflation to consumers should help ease the adverse impact of the sharp lira depreciation on its group revenue and margin. Moreover, its large share of hard currency debt will have a smaller impact than in the past as the company has been steadily increasing its hedging of this exposure.

Balancing stakeholder interests

The most notable mitigating factor, however, was Turk Telekom’s decision not to pay a dividend during 2018[4]. The impact of the ongoing depreciation of the lira against the US dollar and the euro led to an increase in the group’s interest-bearing liabilities. Based on our conversations with the company, this prudent decision serves to highlight the company’s desire to delever its balance sheet – and thereby, de-risk the business – during a period of heightened uncertainty. Furthermore, the board’s sensible focus on managing financial risk during this period of volatility reflects its aim to balance the interests of all stakeholders, and is good corporate governance, in our view.

Turkey: a good call?

The uncertainty of any major presidential and parliamentary election is always likely to pose some risk. However, despite a fragmented political landscape and economic concerns, there are good investment opportunities in Turkey – and we believe Turk Telekom is one credit issuer that has positioned itself well in the current market environment.

Investing

Estate planning for wealthy celebrities or UHNWIs

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Estate planning for wealthy celebrities or UHNWIs 1

By Sean Sheridan, Client Director, ZEDRA Isle of Man

Estate planning often gets pushed aside…sometimes with disastrous knock-on effects for a family. With today’s evolving regulatory environment, future planning can be challenging and often daunting.

Despite inevitable obstacles, there are ways to minimise the burden to enable even celebrities to have future generations enjoying the benefits of their wealth. In this article we explore why estate planning gets overlooked, and why it’s so important to protect prosperity and interests.

It’s easier to put off estate planning than you’d think – even for people like celebrities or UHNWIs who have earned significant wealth. For example, it’s thought that the great Diego Maradona passed away without leaving a Will or other plans for his assets, despite recent years of ill health. There were already reports of a contested estate just weeks after his funeral. Michael Jackson, Prince, James Gandolfini and Philip Seymore Hoffmann all passed away with various issues with their estates, despite having amassed fortunes.

It’s not disorganisation or a lack of desire that stops people planning their estate. In fact, often the last thing people want is to leave family or loved ones having to deal with probate and complex legal affairs at an already difficult time. Many people simply put off estate planning, thinking they will have time later…whenever that is. Alternatively, they may not comprehend how challenging it can be to untangle an intricate estate, and what legal rules there are that surround how an estate will automatically be divided amongst heirs and spouses if forced heirship laws apply. Equally, many people may not know that some loved ones may not get any assets or be looked after if provisions aren’t made in advance.

Privacy

For UHNWI a properly planned estate can also mean more privacy for family at a challenging time. Many HNWI will choose – along with advisors – a structure that will allow for maximum confidentiality and will keep the details of the estate and any beneficiaries private. Information about beneficiaries of an estate becoming public can also make them a target for press or other unwanted attention. As structures which allow for both discretion and succession planning, trusts can be very popular for this reason.

Beneficiaries

Trusts also allow for settlors to stipulate the conditions under which beneficiaries may have access to or be given money from a trust.

Trusts allow the settlor the ability to lay out one or more conditions. For example, a settlor could put aside assets in trust to support beneficiaries but not make all the assets available to them at once. This might be to support good governance or simply to protect beneficiaries from some of the hazards associated with wealth, as perceived by the settlor.

Practically, this means a settlor and their advisors might look at different conditions for a trust’s assets. For example, beneficiaries might only receive a lump sum every 10 years. Alternatively, they might get a monthly pay-out, similar to a salary. The settlor might wish that funds are paid out to beneficiaries for the sole purpose of paying for their college education or to purchase a property.

Corporate trustees like ZEDRA ensure that the settlor’s wishes are met, and the assets of the trusts are used in the way the settlor would like and as laid out in the trust deed.

Planning ahead 

Planning ahead with advisors is vital – especially for anyone with a complex assets and interests that span various geographies may be complex in terms of nature, like IP rights.

Expert advice that’s tailored around an individual’s personal situation is a must, so thinking ahead is crucial. It’s never too early to make sure you’re planning your estate and making sure loved ones or important causes will be looked after when you’re gone.

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Dollar edges lower as investors favor higher-risk currencies

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Dollar edges lower as investors favor higher-risk currencies 2

By Stephen Culp

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The dollar lost ground on Friday as market participants favored currencies associated with risk-on sentiment over the safe-haven greenback.

Risk appetite was stoked by better-than-expected economic data and expectations that U.S. President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package will come to fruition.

“The dollar’s down against other currencies but not by a whole lot,” said Oliver Pursche, president of Bronson Meadows Capital Management in Fairfield, Connecticut. “I expect the dollar to be where it is now at the end of the year, and the main reason for that is while I see some signs of improvement in the economy, monetary policy is going to stay where it is.”

“I don’t think the dollar is underpriced or overpriced,” Pursche added.

For the week, the dollar slid about 0.2% against a basket of world currencies, the euro was essentially flat, and the yen lost more than 0.5%. But the British pound advanced more than 1.1% against the dollar, its best week since mid-December.

Bitcoin continues soar to record highs. The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last up 6.6% at $54,961.67, hitting $1 trillion in market capitalization.

Its smaller rival, ethereum, was last up 0.7% at $1,953.28.

The digital currencies have gained about 89% and 1,420%, respectively, year to date, leading some analysts to warn of a speculative bubble.

“One concern I’ve always had (about cryptocurrencies) is how susceptible they are to manipulation,” Pursche said. “But they’re going to continue to gain legitimacy.”

“While it’s great that Tesla made an investment in bitcoin, I’m more intrigued by Blackrock and other major investment firms taking a hard look at cryptocurrencies as a viable investment.”

The Australian dollar, which is closely linked to commodity prices and the outlook for global growth, was last up 1.21% at $0.7863, touching its highest since March 2018.

The New Zealand dollar also gained, closing in on a more than two-year high, and the Canadian dollar advanced as well.

Sterling, which often benefits from increased risk appetite, rose to an almost three-year high amid Britain’s aggressive vaccination program. It had last gained 0.27% to $1.40.

The euro showed little reaction to a slowdown in factory activity indicated by purchasing manager index data, rising 0.21% to $1.2116.

The yen, gained ground against the dollar and was last at 105.495, creeping above its 200-day moving average for the first time in three days.

(Reporting by Stephen Culp, additonal reporting by Tommy Wilkes; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

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Shares rise as cyclical stocks provide support; yields climb

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Shares rise as cyclical stocks provide support; yields climb 3

By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

NEW YORK (Reuters) – A gauge of global equity markets snapped a 3-day losing streak to edge higher on Friday, as the recent selling pressure on high-flying big technology-related stocks eased even as investors showed a preference for economically sensitive cyclical sectors.

Oil prices fell from recent highs as Texas energy companies began preparations to restart oil and gas fields shuttered by freezing weather, while the U.S. Treasury yields extended their recent rise.

The MSCI’s global stock index was up 0.47% at 681.88, after losing ground for three consecutive sessions.

On Wall Street, stocks steadied as cyclical sectors edged higher while tech names made modest advances after concerns about elevated valuations led to some selling in recent sessions.

“What we saw (this week) represents a market that is tired and may not do very much. So we are headed for some sort of a pullback, but I don’t think we’re there just yet,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.

“Investors are not really pulling out of the market, but they are becoming more cautious. It already has factored in another good positive earnings season.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 119.97 points, or 0.38%, to 31,613.31, the S&P 500 gained 12.93 points, or 0.33%, to 3,926.9 and the Nasdaq Composite added 92.58 points, or 0.67%, to 13,957.93.

The S&P 500 technology and communication services sectors, housing high-value growth stocks, were among the smallest gainers in early trading, while financials, industrials, energy and materials rose more than 1%.

European shares edged higher on Friday as an upbeat earnings report from Hermes boosted confidence in a broader economic recovery. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was 0.64% higher.

U.S. Treasury yields on the longer end of the curve rose to new one-year highs on Friday as improved risk appetite boosted Wall Street, while the yield on 30-year inflation-protected securities (TIPS) turned positive for the first time since June.

Core bond yields have pushed higher globally, led by the so-called reflation trade, where investors wager on a pick-up in growth and inflation. Growing momentum for coronavirus vaccine programs and hopes of massive fiscal spending under U.S. President Joe Biden have spurred reflation trades.

The benchmark 10-year yield was last up 5.1 basis points at 1.338%, its highest level since Feb. 26, 2020.

Oil prices retreated from recent highs for a second day on Friday as Texas energy companies began preparations to restart oil and gas fields shuttered by freezing weather.

Unusually cold weather in Texas and the Plains states curtailed up to 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil production and 21 billion cubic feet of natural gas, analysts estimated.

Brent crude futures were down 28 cents, or 0.44%, at $63.65 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 66 cents, or 1.09%, to $59.86.

Copper jumped to its highest in more than nine years on Friday and towards a third straight weekly gain as tight supplies and bullish sentiment towards base metals continued after the Chinese New Year.

Spot gold XAU= was down 0.58% at $1,785.71 an ounce.

The dollar lost ground on Friday, extending Thursday’s decline as improved risk appetite sapped demand for the safe-haven currency and drew buyers to riskier, higher-yielding currencies. The dollar index was off 0.295%.

Bitcoin hit yet another record high on Friday, hitting a market capitalization of $1 trillion, blithely shrugging off analyst warnings that it is an “economic side show” and a poor hedge against a fall in stock prices.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Nick Zieminski)

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