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Hermes: Turkey’s election: a case for cautious optimism?

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Hermes: Turkey’s election: a case for cautious optimism?

Turkish parliamentary and presidential elections will take place this Sunday amid a febrile political and economic climate. In recent months, the country has been grappling with double-digit inflation, a pressured lira and fears over the independence of its central bank. As voters prepare to go to the polls, Andrey Kuznetsov, Portfolio Manager at Hermes Investment Management, assesses the investment landscape in Turkey.

 Turkey is no stranger to political instability. On Sunday, Turks will go to the polls for the sixth time in four years, and for the second time under emergency law after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan brought forward the election by 18 months[1]. The move, Erdogan said, reflects the country’s need to “overcome uncertainty”[2], but critics argue he wants to push through the vote before the country’s economic woes get materially worse.

While Erogan looks like he will win the presidential race, the parliamentary election, looks too close to call. There is a risk that Erdogan’s ruling AK Party and the nationalist MHP party will not retain a parliamentary majority after Sunday’s vote.

Economic concerns worry voters

Voters have already been spooked by the country’s flailing economy: the lira has depreciated by about 25% against the US dollar so far this year, hurt by domestic politics and global monetary policy. A series of tirades by Erdogan against high interest rates have sparked concerns about central bank independence and inflation is stuck in double-digit territory.

First-quarter economic growth was strong at 7.4%. However, it is widely expected that the Turkish economy will have slowed sharply in the second quarter due to recent lira weakness and a trio of interest-rate hikes totalling 500 basis points (bps) since April.

Opportunities

At present, there is a significant premium priced in to Turkish sovereign bonds. For example, the 6% Turkish sovereign bond maturing in 2027 is trading 450bps over US Treasuries, and it has widened by about 200bps so far this year. This has created opportunities for investors to gain exposure to companies with robust levers that can withstand the current macro environment, such as exporters and well-capitalised, domestically focused businesses. One such example is current holding Turk Telekom.

 Figure 1: The spread of Turkish sovereign bonds over US Treasuries has widened this year

Source: Bloomberg as at 20 June 2018

Source: Bloomberg as at 20 June 2018

Turk Telekom: emitting good signals?

The incumbent integrated telecommunications giant Turk Telekom provides local, national, international and mobile telecommunication services, internet products and services.

In the first quarter, Turk Telekom reported strong earnings, with revenue aligned with inflation. It also generated decent subscriber growth during this period. Consolidated revenues increased 8.8% year-on-year to 4.7bn lira, while EBITDA grew by 29% year-on-year to 2bn lira[3].

Despite a strong start to the year, the recent lira weakness will have an impact on the company’s credit profile. Nevertheless, there are several mitigating factors. Turk Telekom’s ability to partly pass on inflation to consumers should help ease the adverse impact of the sharp lira depreciation on its group revenue and margin. Moreover, its large share of hard currency debt will have a smaller impact than in the past as the company has been steadily increasing its hedging of this exposure.

Balancing stakeholder interests

The most notable mitigating factor, however, was Turk Telekom’s decision not to pay a dividend during 2018[4]. The impact of the ongoing depreciation of the lira against the US dollar and the euro led to an increase in the group’s interest-bearing liabilities. Based on our conversations with the company, this prudent decision serves to highlight the company’s desire to delever its balance sheet – and thereby, de-risk the business – during a period of heightened uncertainty. Furthermore, the board’s sensible focus on managing financial risk during this period of volatility reflects its aim to balance the interests of all stakeholders, and is good corporate governance, in our view.

Turkey: a good call?

The uncertainty of any major presidential and parliamentary election is always likely to pose some risk. However, despite a fragmented political landscape and economic concerns, there are good investment opportunities in Turkey – and we believe Turk Telekom is one credit issuer that has positioned itself well in the current market environment.

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How are investors traversing the UK’s transition out of lockdown?

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How are investors traversing the UK’s transition out of lockdown? 1

By Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst, HYCM

Just when we thought we had overcome the initial health challenges posed by COVID-19, the UK Government has once again introduced lockdown measures in certain regions to curb a rise in new cases. This is happening at a time when the government is trying to bring about the country’s post-pandemic recovery and prevent a prolonged economic downturn.

This is the reality of the “new normal” – a constant battle to both contain the spread of the virus but also avoid extended economic stagnation.

Of course, no matter how many policies are introduced to spur on investment, traders and investors are likely to act with caution for the foreseeable future. There are simply too many unknowns to content with at the moment.

To try and measure investor sentiment towards different asset classes at present, HYCM recently commissioned research to uncover which assets investors are planning to invest in over the coming 12 months. After surveying over 900 UK-based investors, our figures show just how COVID-19 has affected different investor portfolios. I have analysed the key findings below.

Cash retreat

At present, it seems that by far the most common asset class for investors is cash savings, with 78% of investors identifying as having some form of savings in a bank account. Other popular assets were stocks and shares (48%) and property (38%). While not surprising, when viewed in the context of investor’s future plans for investment, it becomes evident that security, above all else, is what investors are currently seeking.

A third of those surveyed (32%) said that they intended to put more of their wealth into their savings account, the most common strategy by far among those surveyed. This was followed by stocks and shares (21%), property (17%), and fixed interest securities (17%).

When asked about what impact COVID-19 has had on their portfolios throughout 2020, 43% stated that their portfolio had decreased in value as a consequence of the pandemic. This has evidently had an effect on investors’ mindsets, with 73% stating that they were not planning on making any major investment decisions for the rest of the year.

Looking at the road ahead

So, it seems that many investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach; hoping that the promise of a V-shaped recovery comes to fruition. The issue, however, is that this exact type of hesitancy when it comes to investing may well slow the pace of economic recovery. Financial markets need stimulus in order to help facilitate a post-pandemic economic resurgence, but if said financial stimulation only arrives once the recovery has already begun, the economy risks extended stagnation.

It seems, then, that there are two possible set outcomes on the path ahead. The first is a steady decline in COVID-19 cases, then an economic downturn as the markets correct themselves, followed by a return to relative economic stability. The second potential outcome is a second spike of COVID-19 cases which incurs a second nationwide lockdown – delaying an economic revival for the foreseeable future. At present, the former of these two scenarios is seemingly playing out with economic growth and GDP steadily increasing; but recent COVID-19 case upticks show that it’s still too soon to be certain of either scenario.

A cautious approach, therefore, will evidently remain the most common investment strategy looking ahead. But investors must remember that, even in the most uncertain times, there are always opportunities for returns on investment. Merely transforming a varied portfolio into cash savings risks a long-term decline in value.

High Risk Investment Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. For more information please refer to HYCM’s Risk Disclosure.

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Hatton Gardens 5 top tips for investing in Diamonds

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Hatton Gardens 5 top tips for investing in Diamonds 2

By Ben Stinson, Head of eCommerce at Diamonds Factory

Investing in diamonds can be extremely rewarding, but only if you know what to look for. For investors who lack experience, finding your diamond in the rough can be quite daunting.

For even the most beginner of diamond investors, the essentials are fairly obvious. For instance, you need to ask yourself will the diamond hold its value over time? What’s the overall condition of the stone and the jewellery? Is there history behind the item in question?

Although common sense plays a big part in investing, people often need insider tips and tricks to go from beginner to expert. Tony French, the in-house Diamond Consultant, at Diamonds Factory shares his professional knowledge on the 5 most important things to look for when investing in diamonds.

1: Using cut, weight and colour to determine value

Firstly, consider the shape, colour, and weight of your diamond, as this can play a pivotal role in guaranteeing growth in the value of your item. Granted, investing trends change with time, but a round cut of your diamond will almost always be the most sought after. The cut of your diamond is incredibly important, as it can influence the sparkle and therefore, the overall value. It’s a similar story for the intensity of some colours, such as Pink, Red, Blue, Green etc. Concerning weight, the heavier (bigger) stones will generally increase in value by a bigger percentage. Collectively these factors also contribute to the supply and demand aspect, which will determine their high price, and will ensure your item is re-sellable.

2: Provenance

Looking for significant value? Well, aim to own jewellery or diamonds that come from an important public figure. If you’re lucky enough to own a piece that has significant history, or was owned by a celebrity or person of interest, it’s an absolute must to have concrete evidence of this. Immediately, this proof will increase an item’s overall value, and there’s a good chance the stardom of your item might drum up interest amongst diehard fans, increasing the value even further…

Equally, it’s possible to proactively bring provenance to unique diamonds of yours. For instance, you can offer to loan bespoke, or unusual pieces for film, theatre, or TV performances – then it can be advertised as worn by xyz.

3: Find the source

Ben Stinson

Ben Stinson

Establishing your diamond’s source is one of the most important things you can do when investing in diamonds. If you’re starting out, try to purchase diamonds that have NOT been owned by too many people, as the overall value of the diamond will reflect multiple ownership. Alternatively, I’d always recommend buying from suppliers like ourselves or other suppliers and retailers, who buy directly from the people who have had them certified.

Primarily, this will allow you to have a greater degree of transparency, which is crucial when buying such a valuable item. Next, you should immediately see an increase in value of your diamonds, as identifying a source will allow traceability and therefore, market context.

4: Certification

Linked closely with my previous point, is the requirement to ensure that your diamonds are certified by a credible lab, and you have the evidence to prove so (a written document with specific grading details about your diamonds) – this will remove any doubts of impropriety.

It’s essential to remember that not all labs are the same, and many labs are better than others. Both the AGS (American Gem Society) and GIA (Gemological Institute of America) have great reputations and are world renowned. I’d recommend doing your own research into the labs, and when you’ve found the pieces that you’d like to invest in, then make an informed decision based upon your findings. Ultimately, proving certification will make your stones easier to insure, and deep down, you can have peace of mind knowing you have got what you have paid for.

Don’t forget to keep this paperwork in a safe location as well – you’d be surprised how many people we’ve met who have lost, or forget where they’ve placed it.

5:  Patience is a virtue…

If the market is strong, it might be tempting to look for an immediate sale once you’ve purchased a high value item. However, I suggest holding onto your diamonds for some time before even thinking about selling. More often than not, an item is more likely to increase in value over a few years than a few days – try and wait a little longer!

Equally, I would encourage having your diamonds, or jewellery professionally valued regularly. If you don’t have the knowledge to make a rough judgement on how much your pieces are worth, a consultant or expert can provide both a valuation, and contextualise that amount in the wider market. From there, you should be empowered with the knowledge to decide whether to keep or sell.

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The benefits of automated pension plans

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The benefits of automated pension plans 3

While many people will prefer to speak to fellow human beings when discussing their investments, automation is already part of everyday life. Over the last few years we have seen introduction of robo-advisors, with many pension investment companies placing these new platforms front and centre of their future strategies. So, what are the benefits of automated pension plans and robo-advisors?

No-nonsense information gathering

KYC, or Know Your Client, is an integral part of the investment world. The wider your knowledge base on a particular client the more personalised the service you can offer. Failure to gather the correct information, and use it accordingly, is a breach of investment regulations in many countries. Therefore, the use of robo-advisors allows a no-nonsense and clear approach to information gathering.

These systems use an algorithm to choose the most appropriate investment strategy for your pension fund. The algorithm is based upon issues such as:-

  • Your attitude to risk
  • Your investment term
  • Your current investment goals

It is worth noting the variable “your current investment goals”. Due to the way that the system is set up, you can update your investment goals on a regular basis. This means that your portfolio would be automatically adapted to your new goals.

As pension-fund regulations continue to be tightened, information gathering is becoming even more important. This initial data gathering exercise will also incorporate a degree of guidance and thought provoking comments. For example, this could highlight the risk/return ratio and the suitability for pension fund investment. The concept of the robo-advisors platform is simple; participants have time to think about the consequences of their attitude to risk for example. The majority of platforms use a concept known as modern portfolio theory.

Source: Unsplash

What is modern portfolio theory?

As a sidenote, you will find that many robo-advisor platforms will mention the concept of modern portfolio theory. This is a Nobel Prize winning economic theory based on the use of data points to create a personalised portfolio of investments. Modern portfolio theory presumes that the majority of investors are risk averse. This means that those looking to take additional risk will expect additional rewards. As a consequence, their pension-fund portfolio would need to reflect this.

Using ETFs to create a personalised portfolio

Automated pension investment platforms (also known as robo investing) tend to use Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) to create personalised investment portfolios. ETFs have been around for many years and they are an integral part of the investment scene. There are numerous benefits to using ETFs such as:-

Focus on a particular market/type of investment

ETFs are basically funds which are structured to mirror the make-up of a particular market, sector or type of investment such as a commodity or index. For example, the S&P/TSX Composite Index is recognised as the benchmark Canadian index. As a consequence, for those pension fund investors looking at a balanced risk/return, an ETF mirroring this index would be ideal for their portfolio. The funds are created by replicating components/weightings of a particular index with some ETFs also using futures and options

Continuous adjustments

Just as indices are rebalanced from time to time, it is important that your pension fund investments undertake the same process. Say for example the robo-advisor system created a personalised portfolio consisting of two index ETFs. If one index was to perform much better than the other, at some point this would need to be reweighted. The strategy behind this is simple; if the balance of your portfolio was tilted towards one particular ETF index then your future performance would also be tilted towards that index. This could lead to increased volatility and impact the balanced approach to investment.

Price visibility and trading

While many people view ETFs and mutual index tracking funds as one and the same, there are a number of differences. The main difference is liquidity, with ETFs constantly traded throughout the day and mutual fund prices set at the end of each trading day. As a consequence, robo-advisors can react to intra-day news flow, while those holding mutual funds will need to wait until the daily price has been set. You’ll often find that transaction costs associated with ETFs can be significantly less than mutual funds.

Risk profile criteria set by human experts

While the majority of the processes associated with automated pension plans have little or no human input, there is significant input with regard to risk profiles. This means that investment experts will allocate particular ETFs, and other exchange traded instruments such as futures, to various risk/reward profiles. When we talk of risk/reward in the context of pension investments, this does not indicate extreme risk – this isn’t advisable for long-term pension investments. Indeed, those pension advisors allocating funds to ETFs offering extreme risk/reward ratios may find themselves answering questions from the regulators.

In the modern era, there is nothing to stop the process of opening a pension fund, right through to management of investments, from being fully automated. Whether we move closer to this alignment in the future remains to be seen. However, in the meantime the vast majority of investors prefer an element of human expert involvement, even if just to oversee any potential discrepancies.

Low-costs improve long-term returns

The cost of any service or product comes down to the components. Traditional active pension fund investment will involve an array of different people with different skill sets. The combined cost of these teams can be significant and is reflected in the fund’s management and ongoing charges. Therefore, the more elements of the system which can be automated the lower the management fees and ongoing charges. When you also consider that many robo-advisors will use ETFs, which simply track various assets or indices, the cost element is yet another competitive edge.

While there is certainly a place for active investment management, using expert investment advisors, very often automated pension plans will complement this alternative approach. Many people now choose to maintain a core element of their pension fund under a robo-advisor platform, as their pension-fund backbone. Allocating an element to a more active investment approach offers the opportunity to enhance returns, although there is an obvious element of risk.

Source: Unsplash

Easy-to-use investment platforms

The subject of pension investment can be complicated at the best of times. Therefore, the introduction of robo-advisor platforms, offering regulatory updates and guidance, has been extremely useful for many people. A growing number of people seem to prefer this plain talking approach to pension fund investment. You could argue that this removes any potential conflict-of-interest, the volatility of human nature making way for cold hard facts. Obviously, there will be advice and guidance available, as and when required, but this would likely come at an additional cost.

It is worth noting that before any robo-advisors platform is released to the market it will undergo stringent testing. This testing will take in both in-person testing and remote user testing which is unmoderated. As a consequence, those creating these platforms can help and assist those testing the systems in person. On the flipside, remote user testing is akin to releasing the platform into the mass market. These users are guided by the instructions and design of the platforms, giving invaluable feedback on any tweaks and changes required.

Removing human emotion

The removal of human emotion from investment decisions can be considered something of a double-edged sword. However, robo-advisors provide a no nonsense approach to pension fund investment. A relatively swift in-depth questionnaire will gather all of the information required, allowing algorithms to calculate the appropriate risk/reward ratio. The use of EFTs takes away day-to-day management of investments, in favour of index tracking funds. Auto rebalancing and opportunities to adjust your risk/reward ratio going forward creates a very flexible environment.

Those looking for a passive investment strategy will be attracted to robo-advisors. Those looking for a more active approach still have plenty of choice in the wider market. Then there are those looking for a mix of the two. In recent years we have seen huge advances in artificial intelligence, which already play a role in wider investment trading strategies. Will this technology become more commonplace in the future?

Summary

Robo-advisors have been around, in some shape or form, for some time. In many ways they do the time-consuming legwork that human advisors did in the past. This allows pension advice companies to focus their funding on areas where they can enhance their business. There is a general misconception that robo-advisors have total control over pension fund investments. This is wrong. There are human advisors and investment experts in the background tweaking the system, allocating EFTs to specific risk profiles and constantly enhancing their offering. 

While the current raft of robo-advisors make little or no use of artificial intelligence, the ability to learn, this must surely be an aspiration for the future. This is an area of the market which is constantly developing and changing. We already accept artificial intelligence in many areas of our life, so why not the world of investment? Would you trust an advisor who was able to learn from human mistakes?

This is a Sponsored Feature.

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