Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on October 23, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 21, 2026
Add as preferred source on GoogleJP Morgan predicts gold prices could average $5,055 per ounce by late 2026, driven by investor demand and central bank buying.
(Reuters) -JP Morgan analysts on Thursday maintained a bullish outlook on gold, forecasting prices could reach an average of $5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026.
The forecast is based on "demand assumptions that see investor demand and central bank buying averaging around 566 tons a quarter in 2026," the bank said in a note.
"Gold remains our highest conviction long for the year, and we see further upside as the market enters a Fed rate-cutting cycle," Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at JP Morgan, said.
The combination of a "Fed cutting cycle with overlays of stagflation anxiety, concerns around Fed independence, and broader debasement hedging" supports gold's upside, Gregory Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Strategy said.
On the dollar, the bank noted that the rally is "not a de-dollarization or not a debasement story, but it is most likely a dollar diversification story," highlighting that foreign holders of U.S. assets are gradually redirecting small allocations into gold.
JP Morgan analysts also highlighted that recent market consolidation is healthy.
The pullback reflects the market digesting the rapid price gains since August, said Kaneva.
"It's normal if you're paralyzed with fear, because the price moved so fast ... It's just a very clean story - you have a lot of buyers, and you have no sellers," she said.
She reiterated a long-term target of $6,000/oz by 2028, stressing that gold should be viewed on a multi-year horizon.
Spot gold has achieved several record highs this year, with the latest peak of $4,381.21 hit on Monday, marking a significant year-to-date gain of nearly 57% and setting the stage for its strongest annual performance since 1979. [GOL/]
(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Susan Fenton and Joe Bavier)
Commodities are basic goods used in commerce that are interchangeable with other goods of the same type, including metals, agricultural products, and energy resources.
Market consolidation refers to the process where companies in the same industry merge or acquire one another, leading to fewer companies in the market.
A Fed rate-cutting cycle is a period during which the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates to stimulate economic growth.
Stagflation is an economic condition characterized by stagnant economic growth, high unemployment, and high inflation.
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