Oil falls as investors weigh potential supply glut, weak demand

By Georgina McCartney

HOUSTON (Reuters) -Oil prices declined on Thursday as investors considered a potential supply glut, as well as weakened demand in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer.

Brent crude futures were down 39 cents, or 0.61%, to $63.13 a barrel at 1:25 p.m. EDT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down 40 cents, or 067%, to $59.20.

Global oil prices fell for a third straight month in October on fears of oversupply as OPEC and its allies - known as OPEC+ - increase output while production from non-OPEC producers is also still growing. 

"The market keeps being haunted by the best-telegraphed supply glut in history, that is a headwind to prices," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital.

DEMAND WEAKER THAN EXPECTED

Demand weakness, however, remains in focus. In the year to November 4, global oil demand rose by 850,000 barrels per day, below the 900,000 bpd projected previously by JPMorgan, the bank said in a client note. 

"High-frequency indicators suggest that U.S. oil consumption remains subdued," the note said, pointing to weak travel activity and lower container shipments. 

In the previous session, oil prices fell after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude stocks rose by 5.2 million barrels to 421.2 million barrels last week. [EIA/S] 

"Low refinery run rates showed there is not strong demand for crude in the U.S. right now as a result of a significant refinery turnaround season. That is fundamentally weighing on prices," Kilduff said.

Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, sharply reduced the prices of its crude for Asian buyers in December, responding to a well-supplied market as OPEC+ producers boost output.

"We think that downward pressure on oil prices will prevail, supporting our below-consensus forecast of $60 per barrel by end-2025 and $50 per barrel by end-2026," Capital Economics said in a note.

Curbing some losses, the latest sanctions on Russia's biggest oil companies two weeks ago are sparking concerns about supply disruptions, despite rising output from OPEC and its allies, analysts said.

Lukoil's operations at its foreign businesses are struggling in the face of the sanctions, Reuters reported this week. 

"There is a little bit of an impact on prices (from the sanctions), but not a huge one," said Jorge Montepeque at Onyx Capital Group. "Based on the numbers, it should be bigger, but the market still needs to be convinced there will be an impact."

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Anna Hirtenstein and Robert Harvey in London. Additional reporting by Katya Golubkova in Tokyo and Sam Li in Beijing. Editing by David Goodman, Mark Potter, Rod Nickel and Diane Craft)