Trading Day: Nervy Fed vigil almost over

ORLANDO, Florida, Dec 9 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks, ‌bonds and the dollar held relatively steady on Tuesday as investors braced for the Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday, while surprisingly hawkish remarks from Australia's central bank governor rocked markets there.

More on that below. In my column today, I look at a potential wild card from the Fed ‍on Wednesday - large-scale bill ‌purchases of $45 billion a month to make sure bank reserves remain ample and there is no risk of a repo market freeze and spike in interbank rates like there was in September 2019.

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense ⁠of what happened in markets today.

1. How China's AI chips stack up against Nvidia's H200 2. US job openings rise slightly after surging inSeptember; fewer workers quitting their jobs 3. Fed faces turbulent ‌2026 as Powell's term ends,independence tested 4. Will ECB's 'good place' turn into passive easing?: MikeDolan 5. BOJ Governor Ueda says rises in long-term interest rates'somewhat rapid'

Today's Key Market Moves

* STOCKS: Wall Street little changed, Dow underperforms.Europe mixed, Asia mostly lower. * SECTORS/SHARES: U.S. industrials, healthcare biggestdecliners; energy the biggest climber even though oil falls.JPMorgan -4.7%, Nvidia -0.3%; Newmont Corporation +5.7%, WarnerBros +3.8%. * FX: AUD the big G10 FX winner on hawkish RBA, JPYbiggest loser after BOJ Governor Ueda's remarks. * BONDS: Aussie 10-year yield hits 4.77%, highest in twoyears; long-dated German yields highest in 14 years. U.S.Treasuries outperform. * COMMODITIES/METALS: Silver hits $60 for first time, oildown around 1%.

Today's Talking Points

* Global rate hawks show their talons ...

The signals from major central banks are, by and large, becoming more hawkish, with RBA Governor Michele Bullock and ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel this week becoming the latest policymakers ⁠to signal an end to the global easing cycle is in sight.

A "hawkish cut" from the Fed on Wednesday is widely expected too. If delivered, U.S. and other bond yields could accelerate their recent upswing and break into new, higher ranges, laying the ground for more volatile markets going into the new year.

* ... U.S. security hawks show theirs

Shares in Nvidia reversed a 2% rise in pre-market trading and closed lower ​on Tuesday, following strong opposition to the Trump administration's decision to allow Nvidia to ship its second-most advanced AI chip to China.

President Donald Trump said on Monday he would allow H200 sales ‌to China. The U.S. would collect a 25% fee on such sales, and AMD and Intel would get approval to sell similar chips there ⁠too. But China hardliners and Democratic lawmakers slammed the move, saying Beijing could harness the technology to supercharge its military and ultimately bankrupt and replace Nvidia.

* Duration elation

The U.S. Treasury's $39 billion sale of 10-year bonds on Tuesday was a reminder that appetite for U.S. sovereign debt remains strong and widespread across the investor base. At the right price, of course.

According to Exante Data, the bid-to-cover ratio of 2.55 was among the highest of the past 50 auctions. End-user demand, which combines both indirect and direct bids, was also well above average - the 10-year yield's spike this week to a three-month high of 4.19% was clearly ​deemed attractive.

Fed could surprise market with T-bill buying binge

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to trim interest rates on Wednesday, but if Chair Jerome Powell wants to give markets an added holiday surprise, here's one option: about $45 billion of monthly short-term bill purchases.

    That's the out-of-consensus call from Bank of America's rates strategists. They agree that a quarter-percentage-point reduction in the Fed funds target range to 3.50%-3.75% is likely. They also reckon the Fed will announce it will start buying large quantities of Treasury bills in January to maintain "ample" reserves in the banking system and avert the kind of liquidity crunch that froze money markets in September 2019. 

    Bank reserves peaked at $4.27 trillion in 2021, and have recently fallen as low as $2.83 trillion.

    To be clear, these so-called "Reserve Management Purchases" (RMP) would not be quantitative easing. 

That refers to central bank purchases of government bonds to lower longer-dated yields and stimulate lending. Crucially, QE is usually conducted in an economy where deflation is a greater threat than inflation, and ​when interest rates are at or ‍near zero.

    The RMP operation that BofA envisages doesn't meet any of these criteria. It would ​be designed to manage money market liquidity, ensuring the plumbing of the interbank market doesn't suddenly clog up and imperil the functioning of the financial system.

    However, the Fed would leave itself open to accusations from its raft of critics that, regardless of the name, this is just the latest wave of money-printing madness that could accelerate the march towards higher inflation and currency debasement. 

    But given ongoing concern about tightening liquidity in the repo market and a sharp rise in Treasury bill issuance by President Donald Trump's administration, this is a holiday gift that both markets and the White House might be glad to receive.

'CERTAINTY AND CONFIDENCE'

    This plan wouldn't come out of left field. Most Fed-watchers already expect the central bank to begin buying bills in the first half of next year, and the Fed has already announced in October that it will redirect proceeds from its maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) into bills. Analysts estimate MBS reinvestments will amount to around $15 billion a month.

    But BofA's call is notable both for the timing and the size of the predicted purchases. The $45 billion haul would be on top of the MBS reinvestments, meaning the Fed would soon be buying around $60 billion of bills a month.

    This will provide market participants with "certainty and confidence" that reserves will remain "ample", according to BofA rates strategist Mark Cabana, who previously worked on the ⁠New York Fed's trading desk.

No one knows exactly how low reserves can get before triggering a liquidity crisis and a spike in interbank borrowing costs. But in September 2019 it was around $1.4 trillion, which was roughly 6.5% of GDP at the time. 

    Padhraic Garvey at ING also reckons the Fed could announce it will increase bank reserves by adding to the MBS roll-off bill purchases.

    As Garvey notes, if the Fed wants to keep the balance sheet steady as a share of GDP, ​it will ultimately have to re-expand at the same pace as nominal GDP growth. So if nominal GDP is growing at 3-5%, bank reserves would need to increase at that rate, which would equate to the Fed buying around $20-30 billion of bills per month. 

THE FED'S SHRINKING BALANCE SHEET

    The Fed certainly has room to expand its balance sheet, especially at the ultra-short end of the maturity spectrum. The central bank's balance sheet stands at around $6.5 trillion, down from a peak of $9 trillion in 2022. As a share of GDP, which is the more relevant measure, it is now around 22%, down from a peak of 35% also in 2022, and the smallest it's been since April 2020.

    Perhaps more importantly, bills only account for around 16% of the Fed's balance sheet, roughly the same level as just before the repo market crisis of September 2019.

Another 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday ‌would be a surprise to no one. If there are any fireworks from the Fed's policy decision, they are more likely to be on the balance sheet.  

What could move markets tomorrow?

* China producer, consumer inflation (November) * Japan tankan index (December) * Japan wholesale inflation (November) * ECB President Christine Lagarde interview with FT * Brazil inflation (November) * Brazil interest rate decision * Canada interest rate decision * U.S. interest rate decision

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)