What Lies Ahead for Trump's Gaza Initiative Following Rafah Crossing Reopening?

Overview of Trump's Gaza Plan

Feb 2 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to end the Gaza war was given a boost on Monday with the reopening of the enclave's Rafah crossing with Egypt. But difficult questions remain unaddressed, including whether Hamas will disarm.

Trump's plan, now in its second phase, has been shaken by repeated Israeli attacks that have killed hundreds in Gaza, as well as resistance by Hamas militants to lay down their weapons. Israeli officials say they are preparing for a return to war if Hamas refuses to disarm.

Below is background on Trump's plan as well as key issues left to be resolved.     

Current Situation

WHAT IS TRUMP'S PLAN FOR GAZA?

In September, Trump outlined a 20-point plan for an initial truce, followed by steps towards a broader resolution.

It ultimately calls for Hamas to disarm and have no governing role in Gaza, for Israel to pull out its forces, and for broad reconstruction of the territory under international supervision.

The plan was widely endorsed internationally, although the sides have not yet fully agreed to everything in it.    On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a ceasefire deal covering the first phase of the plan. That included a halt to fighting, the release of all remaining hostages held in Gaza in exchange for thousands of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, a partial Israeli withdrawal, a surge in aid and the reopening of the Rafah crossing.

The Trump plan was also endorsed by a United Nations Security Council resolution that authorised a transitional governing body and international stabilisation force in Gaza.

WHAT IS THE SITUATION NOW?    The ceasefire came into effect on October 10 and ended large-scale combat, though fighting did not completely stop.      Gaza health authorities say at least 488 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire since October 10, and Israel's military says four soldiers have been killed by militants in that time.

Israeli forces pulled back and suspended ground assaults, but still control over 53% of Gaza, including ruined cities along the Israeli and Egyptian borders where they have demolished remaining buildings and ordered residents out.

That means nearly all of Gaza's more than 2 million people are now confined to a sliver of territory on the coast, where Hamas has reasserted control. Most residents live in damaged buildings or makeshift tents.

Palestinian groups and aid agencies say Israel is still not allowing supplies into Gaza at the rate agreed under the first phase of the deal. Israel says it is meeting those commitments.

Armed anti-Hamas Palestinian groups have set up bases in Israeli-held parts of Gaza; Hamas dismisses them as collaborators with no popular support.

Expected Developments in Phase Two

Both sides have shown little sign of narrowing their disputes over steps to be taken in the next phase, which foresees the disarmament of Hamas, further withdrawal of Israeli forces and deployment of peacekeepers.

WHAT'S EXPECTED IN THE SECOND PHASE?    Despite wide gaps between Israel and Hamas, Washington launched the plan's second phase after the New Year, announcing the establishment of a committee of Palestinian technocrats to run Gaza.

They will be overseen by a "Board of Peace" of foreign dignitaries led by Trump, which he initially proposed to address the Gaza war and has since said will also tackle other conflicts.

The plan's second phase also includes Hamas giving up its weapons and Gaza being demilitarised, in exchange for Israel fully withdrawing its troops.

The militant group is still believed to possess rockets, which several diplomats estimated to number in the hundreds. It is also estimated to possess thousands of light weapons, including rifles.

Hamas recently agreed to discuss disarmament with other Palestinian factions and with mediators, sources said. However, two Hamas officials told Reuters that neither Washington nor the mediators had presented the group with any detailed or concrete disarmament proposal.

Two senior Israeli officials told Reuters that the military was preparing to return to war if Hamas does not give up its weapons and that it did not expect the militants to disarm without the use of force.

Hamas is also seeking to incorporate its 10,000 police officers into the new technocrat-led government in Gaza, sources said, a demand opposed by Israel.

Outstanding Issues

WHAT OTHER ISSUES HAVEN'T BEEN AGREED TO?

An international stabilisation force is intended to ensure security and peace inside Gaza. But its composition, role and mandate are all up in the air.

The Palestinian Authority, which is internationally recognised and exercises limited self-rule in parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, is supposed to carry out unspecified reforms before ultimately taking a role in Gaza. But details have not been outlined.

Plans have yet to be hammered out to fund and oversee Gaza's reconstruction. Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, laid out plans this month for a "New Gaza" to be rebuilt from scratch, with computer-generated photos of gleaming residential towers, data centres and industrial zones.

The plan did not address property rights or compensation for Palestinians who lost their homes, businesses and livelihoods during the war, nor did it spell out where displaced Palestinians might live during the rebuilding.

Many Israelis and Palestinians suspect the Trump plan will never be fully realised and a frozen conflict will continue indefinitely.

(Reporting by Nayera Abdallah and Rami AyyubEditing by Peter Graff)