Finance
European fourth-quarter corporate profits expected to fall 0.4%
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 5, 2026
2 min readLast updated: March 5, 2026
Quick Summary
European STOXX 600 Q4 2025 earnings expectations have slipped to a 0.4% year‑on‑year decline, worse than last week’s 0.1% drop, indicating a potential continuation of one of the weakest earnings seasons in recent quarters.
European corporate profits head for two-year low
Analysis of European Blue-Chip Earnings and Market Trends
March 5 (Reuters) - Estimates for European blue-chip companies' fourth-quarter earnings have gotten slightly worse, leaving them on track for their worst earnings season in the past two years, the latest LSEG I/B/E/S data showed on Thursday.
Fourth-Quarter Earnings Performance
Year-on-year earnings of major European companies were expected to have declined 0.4% in the final quarter of 2025, based on results from 229 STOXX 600 companies and market estimates for those that are yet to report, the data showed. That was worse than the 0.1% decline expected last week.
Revenue Estimates and Corporate Resilience
- Estimates for revenues have sharply deteriorated, with the data now pointing to a 4.2% year-on-year decline compared to last week's 2% fall
- Still, European corporates have proved more resilient than previously expected, as forecasts at the end of January were anticipating 4% year-on-year declines.
- About 56% of the 229 STOXX 600 companies that have reported earnings have exceeded market estimates.
Market Projections and Global Trade Impact
- Projections for STOXX 600 company results sharply deteriorated after months of trade upheaval since U.S. President Donald Trump took office.
- Q4 earnings of European blue-chips were forecast to grow as much as 11.1% in February 2025, before Trump announced plans for global tariffs.
Comparison with U.S. Blue-Chip Companies
Performance Gap Between Europe and the U.S.
- European majors have considerably lagged U.S. counterparts, according to a separate LSEG report published on Friday.
- U.S. blue-chips' earnings growth in the fourth quarter is estimated at above 14%, based on results from 479 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.
Analyst Outlook
- "We continue to expect stronger growth in the U.S. than in Europe over H1, but see European earnings catching up in the second half of the year," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note on Tuesday.
(Reporting by Javi West Larrañaga; Editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak and Matt Scuffham)
Key Takeaways
- •Earnings outlook downgraded from –0.1% to –0.4% week‑on‑week
- •Estimates reflect ongoing weakness despite improvements since early earnings season
- •Revenue forecasts remain under pressure, underscoring macroeconomic and trade headwinds
References
Frequently Asked Questions about European fourth-quarter corporate profits expected to fall 0.4%
1What is the expected change in European corporate profits for Q4 2025?
Year-on-year profits of major European companies are expected to decline by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
2How does the latest Q4 2025 profit estimate compare to last week?
The decline of 0.4% is slightly worse than last week’s estimate, which predicted a 0.1% drop.
3Which companies are included in the Q4 earnings data?
The earnings data are based on reports from 229 STOXX 600 companies and market estimates for yet-to-report firms.
4What data source is used for the European corporate profit estimates?
The estimates are based on the latest LSEG I/B/E/S data as of March 5.
