Finance
Barclays, BofA sees no further ECB easing in 2025
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on October 31, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 21, 2026
Quick Summary
Barclays and BofA revise forecasts, predicting no ECB rate cuts in 2025. ECB maintains rates at 2%, with market consensus showing little chance of a December cut.
Barclays, BofA sees no further ECB easing in 2025
ECB Rate Outlook and Market Reactions
(Reuters) -Barclays and BofA Global Research have revised their forecast and no longer expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates in its December meeting, after the ECB kept rates unchanged on Thursday.
Current ECB Policy Stance
The ECB kept interest rates steady at 2% for the third meeting in a row and said that policy was in a "good place" as economic risks recede and the euro zone shows continued resilience in the face of uncertainty.
Brokerage Predictions
Both brokerages had previously pencilled in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the central bank's December policy meeting.
Market Consensus Analysis
Barclays expects the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of 2026, while BofA anticipates a quarter-point cut in March.
"The ECB continues to convey very little, if any, conviction on whether and for how long the current stance will persist," Barclays said in a note on Thursday.
Meanwhile, brokerages including Goldman Sachs and UBS Global Wealth Management reiterated their expectations that the ECB will keep interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future.
Current market consensus suggests little to no chance of a rate cut in December this year, according to data compiled by LSEG.
(Reporting by Joel Jose in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman and Vijay Kishore)
Key Takeaways
- •Barclays and BofA no longer expect ECB rate cuts in 2025.
- •ECB keeps interest rates steady at 2% for the third meeting.
- •Market consensus shows little chance of a December rate cut.
- •Goldman Sachs and UBS expect rates to remain unchanged.
- •BofA anticipates a quarter-point cut in March 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions about Barclays, BofA sees no further ECB easing in 2025
1What is monetary policy?
Monetary policy refers to the actions taken by a central bank to manage the money supply and interest rates to achieve macroeconomic objectives such as controlling inflation, consumption, growth, and liquidity.
2What are interest rates?
Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money or the return on savings, expressed as a percentage of the principal amount. They are influenced by central bank policies and economic conditions.
3What is a central bank?
A central bank is a national financial institution that oversees the monetary system for a country or group of countries, managing currency issuance, interest rates, and monetary policy.
4What are financial markets?
Financial markets are platforms where buyers and sellers engage in the trade of assets such as stocks, bonds, currencies, and derivatives, facilitating capital flow and investment.
5What is economic growth?
Economic growth is the increase in the production of goods and services in an economy over a period of time, typically measured by the rise in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
