Dollar Set for Second Weekly Loss on Iran War Peace Hopes

Dollar Dips Second Week as Middle East Ceasefire Spurs Market Optimism

By Jiaxing Li

Market Reactions to Middle East Ceasefire and Global Developments

Ceasefire Between Israel and Lebanon Eases Safe-Haven Demand

HONG KONG, April 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was headed for a second consecutive weekly decline on Friday in tentative trade, as a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and prospects for fresh Iran talks prompted investors to unwind safe-haven positions.

A 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel went into effect on Thursday and President Donald Trump said the next meeting between the U.S. and Iran could take place over the weekend.

Meanwhile, U.S. and Iranian negotiators have scaled back ambitions for a comprehensive peace deal and are now seeking a temporary memorandum to prevent a return to conflict, with the nuclear issue remaining a core obstacle.

Currency Movements in Response to Geopolitical Developments

Currencies were mostly rangebound in Asia trade as investors awaited further details, leaving the euro steady against the dollar at $1.1783. The common currency was on track for a third straight weekly gain, while sterling traded at $1.3526.

Both currencies have now largely recouped losses triggered by the Iran conflict, hovering near their highest levels in seven weeks.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six major peers, was steady at 98.212. It was on track for a second straight week of declines, giving up most of the gains sparked by the war, as ceasefire optimism continued to reduce demand for safe-haven assets.

Expert Insights on Dollar Outlook

"The markets are in a bit of a consolidation phase because they have already priced in some optimism about the ceasefire being extended earlier in the week," said Sim Moh Siong, FX strategist at OCBC.

"You will need the next catalyst to provide a more directional move. It's no longer a one-way street for the dollar from here."

Performance of Other Major Currencies

The Australian dollar fetched $0.7163, continuing to hover near four-year highs on buoyant risk sentiment. The kiwi traded 0.06% lower at $0.5888.

Against the yen, the dollar rose slightly to 159.26. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday said a decision on how soon to raise interest rates must take into account the fact that the nation's real interest rate is low.

Central Banks and Inflation Risks

Markets Watch Central Bank Response to Inflation Risks

Elsewhere, investors were also monitoring how policymakers will tackle war-induced inflation pressures, with central banks taking a largely cautious stance for now.

U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Friday, after rising in the previous session, as still-elevated oil prices kept inflation worries alive.

The two-year yield was last at 3.7758%, while the benchmark 10-year yield was steady at 4.3132%.

Fed funds futures show markets continue to bet that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold this year.

Global Policy Coordination

Group of Seven finance ministers and central bank governors have agreed to remain ready to act to mitigate economic and inflation risks caused by the Middle East conflict's energy price and supply shocks, French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said on Thursday.

The cautious tone was echoed by European Central Bank policymakers, who played down the chance of a rate hike as soon as this month, arguing that more data will be needed and the precise timing of a move was of secondary importance.

U.S. Labor Market and Policy Outlook

New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, suggesting labor market conditions remained stable. That is also seen giving the Fed room to keep interest rates unchanged for some time while policymakers monitor the inflation fallout from the war.

"Hiking into a negative supply shock cannot compensate for energy-driven inflation in the near term and risks exacerbating growth headwinds," ANZ said in a research note.

(Reporting by Jiaxing Li in Hong Kong; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus)