Dollar rises amid Fed rate cut expectations, better-than-expected retail sales data

By Chibuike Oguh

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar gained against major currencies on Tuesday following better-than-expected retail sales data that showed underlying economic momentum while markets braced for interest rate moves from the Federal Reserve and other central banks.

Commerce Department data on Tuesday showed U.S. retail sales surpassed expectations by jumping 0.7% in November, backed by an uptick in motor vehicle and online purchases.

Markets expect the Fed will deliver a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, with futures implying a nearly 97% chance of a cut, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

Against the Swiss franc, the dollar edged lower by 0.2% to 0.89270 in choppy trading, after hovering near its highest level since July. The euro, which is heading for a drop of nearly 5% against the dollar this year, was down 0.24% at $1.048825.

The U.S. dollar index – which tracks the currency against six others – rose 0.17% to 106.97, after trading as high as 107.08 on the session.

“The market is trying to debate whether it’s time to fade the dollar, which has had an incredible run this year,” said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street in Boston.

“But it seems hard to really push back against U.S. exceptionalism and a stronger dollar going into the new administration, whether we’re talking about a Fed that will probably not seem as dovish as it did in September or the challenges that keep popping up in the emerging and developed markets that make the dollar a safe haven.”

The pound sterling rose against the dollar after data showed British wage growth picked up more strongly than expected in the three months to October. The Bank of England will announce its rate decision on Thursday. The sterling strengthened 0.16% to $1.27040.

The yen strengthened against the dollar, as markets have scaled back the chances of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this week in favor of a move in January. It rose 0.42% against the greenback to 153.52 per dollar.

The dollar weakened 0.06% to 7.287 versus the offshore Chinese yuan, as dour expectations for Chinese economic growth pinned 10-year bond yields near record lows.

The Australian dollar weakened 0.6% versus the greenback to $0.6332, while the Swedish crown weakened 0.76% versus the dollar to 10.964. The Norwegian Krone was also down 0.56% to 11.2052 against the greenback.

Sweden’s Riksbank is expected to cut rates by as much as half a point this week, while Norges Bank will likely leave rates unchanged.

Bitcoin rose as high as $108,379.28, trading near the $110,000 mark, before paring gains and was up 0.68% to $106,798.26.

“I think that the market is worried that they’re going to be only two cuts in the (Fed’s closely watched dot plot) next year; so it’s a little bit dollar positive,” said Steve Englander, global head of G10 FX Research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank in New York.

Currency bid prices at 17 December​ 08:55 p.m.

GMT

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Previous Session Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Dollar index 106.97 106.79 0.19% 5.52% 107.08 106.69

Euro/Dollar 1.0487 1.0514 -0.25% -4.99% $1.0536 $1.0479

Dollar/Yen 153.53 154.125 -0.56% 8.66% 154.245 153.185

Euro/Yen 161.01​ 162.03 -0.63% 3.46% 162.47 160.78

Dollar/Swiss 0.8928 0.8947 -0.21% 6.08% 0.8975 0.8916

Sterling/Dollar 1.2706 1.2684 0.16% -0.17% $1.2728 $1.2669​

Dollar/Canadian 1.4312 1.4243 0.5% 7.98% 1.4324 1.4233

Aussie/Dollar 0.6332 0.6371 -0.61% -7.13% $0.6378 $0.6332

Euro/Swiss 0.9361 0.94 -0.41% 0.81% 0.9417 0.9356

Euro/Sterling 0.8252 0.8286 -0.41% -4.8% 0.8295 0.825

NZ Dollar/Dollar 0.575 0.5783 -0.55% -9% $0.5793 0.5751

Dollar/Norway 11.2061​ 11.1429 0.56% 10.56% 11.2146 11.1343

Euro/Norway 11.7517 11.7229 0.25% 4.7% 11.774 11.7184

Dollar/Sweden 10.9697 10.8745 0.88% 8.97% 10.9713 10.8712

Euro/Sweden 11.5048 11.4389 0.58% 3.41% 11.5085 11.4402

(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York; Additional reporting by Tom Westbrook in Singapore and Amanda Cooper in London; Editing by Nick Zieminski, Matthew Lewis and Lincoln Feast.)